Exit polls predict hung house in Meghalaya, NDPP-BJP win in Nagaland and emergence of Tipra Motha as kingmaker in Tripura

Tipra Motha president Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhwal had told before the elections that in case of a hung house his party would consider supporting any party which conceded or furthered its demand for a separate Tipraland state.

Exit polls by various channels predicted a hung house in Meghalaya, a win for NDPP, backed by the BJP in Nagaland, the two states that went to polls on February 27, 2023, and seemed to oscillate between predicting a clean sweep for the BJP to a hung house in the state of Tripura, where a new party the Tipra Motha may emerge as a potential king-maker in the polls, held a week back.

The crucial but tiny state of Tripura which the BJP had grabbed from the CPI(M) in a surprise win in 2018 had exit results from three pollsters which varied substantially.

IndiaToday-MyAxis indicated that the BJP would get between 36-45 seats in the 60-member assembly by garnering 45% of the popular vote, most of it in the plains where Bengalis live, giving it a spectacular win.

It also predicted the Left-Congress combine would get a paltry 6-11 seats with just 32% of the popular vote, a huge slide from its 43% vote share in 2018. The newbie party Tipra Motha, founded by former royal Pradyot Kishore Mankiya Debbarma, is shown as gathering 9-16 seats from the tribal areas with a concentrated 20% of the vote share.

The Left-Congress combine, however, doubted the exit polls and Congress leader Sudip Roy Burman said, “The BJP will end up in single digits … people have voted against the lawlessness prevailing in the state. It was a revenge vote against the party in power.” However, the ETG- Times Now poll indicated that BJP would remain the largest party but with a substantial drawdown from its earlier tally of 36 to just 24 seats, while Left-Congress would get 21 seats with Tipra Motha snatching 14 seats in the tribal areas.

The ZeeNews-Matrize exit poll, on similar lines, predicted BJP and its ally would win 29-36 seats in Tripura, while the Left-Congress would get between 13-21 seats, and Tipra Motha Party would get between 11-16.

Former militant-turned-Tipra Motha president Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhwal had told PTI before the elections that in case of a hung house his party would consider supporting any party which conceded or furthered its demand for a separate Tipraland state.