India most likely undercounting heat-related deaths, says former WHO Chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan

India undercounts heat-related deaths, but improving surveillance to minimize impact; urgent need for better tracking, preparedness, and policy interventions.

India is "most likely" undercounting heat-related deaths due to a lack of robust data but the government is now improving surveillance to minimise the impact of extreme conditions on health, former WHO chief scientist and Health Ministry advisor Soumya Swaminathan has said.

In an interview with PTI on the sidelines of TERI's World Sustainable Development Summit, she also stressed the urgent need for better tracking, preparedness and policy interventions as the country braces for another extreme summer.

Asked if India was undercounting heat-related deaths, the former director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said, "Most likely. We do not really have a good record of every death in the country. So we have to make some estimations. We have to do some sort of calculations or modelling based on what is happening." But recently, there have been several scientific papers that have actually tracked what are called excess deaths, Ms. Swaminathan said.

"When you look throughout the year, deaths every month will be the same in number in general. But then if you suddenly see a spike, like during COVID we saw a spike.

"So you are going along with your death rate every month fairly stable and then suddenly, in May-June, you see a spike. You can then attribute that the excess deaths are possibly due to heat," she explained.

India experienced brutal heat during last year's summer, recording 536 heatwave days, the highest in 14 years, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Official data showed that India recorded 41,789 suspected heat stroke cases and 143 heat-related deaths during one of its hottest and longest heat waves. Public health experts say the official number of heat deaths is an undercount as 20 to 30% of heat stroke cases usually result in fatalities.