IMD predicts Monsoon to be normal in August, September

The expectations of a normal August and September are premised on the persistence of a La Nina, said IMD

Monsoon during August and September is expected to be ‘normal’ over most of India except for parts of eastern India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

“Normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of south India except west coast, west-central India and northwest India. The below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the west coast and some parts of eastcentral, east and northeast India,” officials said a press conference.

Monsoon rainfall in July, the rainiest monsoon month and crucial for agriculture, was surplus by 16% with most regions of the country getting surplus rainfall except for east and northeast India, which saw reported a 44% deficit. Overall, however, total rainfall during the monsoon (Jun-Aug 1) so far has been 7% surplus.

Monthly rainfall for August, the second-rainiest month during the monsoon, is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 % of its Long Period Average (LPA)). Most parts of southeast India, northwest India and adjoining west-central India are likely to get normal rains with below normal rains likely over west coast and many parts of east-central, east and northeast India.

Temperatures too are expected to be elevated over parts of the east-central, east and northeast India and some parts of northwest and south interior peninsular India, said an accompanying press statement by the IMD.

The expectations of a normal August and September are premised on the persistence of a La Nina, the converse of the El Nino and characterised by a cooling of the waters of the Central Pacific. The ensuing effects are expected to help bring more rain to the Indian subcontinent, unlike the El Nino which normally dries up the rain.

However, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another index of significance, marked by a swing of warm waters between the eastern and western halves of the Indian Ocean, to the monsoon is expected to be negative. A negative outlook is expected to be unfavourable for the monsoon though M Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, said that this wasn’t expected to translate into a serious deficit due to the favourable effect of the La Nina.