Heavy rainfall events and heatwaves to characterise climate changes in future: CSTEP study

Projections indicated that number of days with temperature departure from normal, from 4.5 degrees Celsius to 6.4 degrees Celsius, and greater than 6.4 degrees will increase

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves and high intensity and very high intensity rainfall, are projected to increase in the upcoming years in many districts of the country, according to ‘Climate Atlas of India: District-Level Analysis of Historical and Projected Climate Change Scenarios’, a report released by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP).

The report shows that the climate projections for the country (at district levels) during the period of 2021–2050, indicate a warmer and wetter future.

For the climate change projections, the study considered two climate scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) based on different levels of emissions – RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions scenario). The findings for the short-term period, 2030s, have been compared with the climate from 1990 to 2019, which was considered as the near past historical period, in the study.

In 15 districts, which were analysed for heatwaves, under both RCP scenarios, the projections indicated that the number of days with temperature departure from the normal, from 4.5 degrees Celsius to 6.4 degrees Celsius and greater than 6.4 degrees will increase.

Besides, the report also says that it is projected that the summer maximum temperature in all the districts of the country under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios will increase in the short-term period relative to the historical period.

The increased warming levels in the country might affect agricultural activities as well as animal and human health, the report says. The projections also show that the minimum winter temperatures will also increase by 1.5℃ to 2℃ in 18% of the districts under RCP 4.5 scenario and in 63% of the districts under RCP 8.5 scenario.

Some districts of Manipur, has been projected to have maximum warming levels under both scenarios. While a maximum warming of 2–2.5 degrees is projected under RCP 4.5 scenario, under RCP 8.5 scenario, maximum warming is expected to be 2 – 3.5 degrees.