Elections that shaped India | An ‘upset’ victory in 2004, and the rise of the UPA Premium

On the slogan wars between the BJP and Congress played out in 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the rise and fall of UPA in 2009.

The curtains came down on the “Vajpayee years” with a dramatic shift of power in 2004. The ruling BJP confidently advanced the general elections to capitalise on the popularity of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and a perceived “feel good factor” based on the government’s economic achievements through a mega “India Shining” campaign. The Congress countered with a pitch promising to protect the interests of the common man— the ‘aam aadmi.’ Pollsters predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA but the final verdict defied their electoral calculations, surprising both the victor and the vanquished.

The Congress resurrected, delivering a significant blow to the NDA. Congress President Sonia Gandhi turned down the PM post, instead nominating Manmohan Singh, who became India’s first non-Hindu PM and led the Congress-led coalition, christened the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), for the next 10 years.

The Congress-led UPA received the mandate once again in 2009, albeit with different alliance partners, defeating a BJP-led NDA coalition of a different formulation.

Buoyed by BJP’s success in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh in late 2003, a faction within the party began pushing for an early general election. It believed that NDA’s electoral success in the three States, along with a general sense of economic well-being across the country, provided a favourable environment for a victory.

Though Mr. Vajpayee was reluctant to call a snap poll, as his long-time aide Shiv Kumar Pareek claimed in an interview with news agency IANS, he accepted the party’s recommendation during the BJP’s National Executive meeting in January 2004. He sought a renewed mandate to march “even more confidently” towards making India a developed nation by 2020, hoping for a “new government in place by April.”

The day after Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam unfurled the tricolour at Rajpath to mark India’s transition to a democratic republic, PM Vajpayee met with the President to seek an early dissolution of the Lok Sabha. 

On February 6, nearly eight months before the expiry of the NDA government’s five-year term, President Kalam dissolved the 13th Lok Sabha, paving the way for the Lok Sabha elections months ahead of schedule. Concerns arose that a premature dissolution would prevent the Election Commission (EC) from holding free and fair elections. While the poll body announced the schedule in the same month, it did not align with the NDA’s desire to establish a government by April.