Changing winds: Is BJP distancing itself from the Dalits?

Data show that the BJP’s Dalit voter base is declining, especially during national elections

On December 17, Home Minister Amit Shah made some contentious comments on B.R. Ambedkar, which not only sparked debates in Parliament but also led to scuffles. There have also been protests against his remarks in parts of the country. While many spokespersons of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have maintained that his words were taken out of context, the Opposition has been keeping the issue alive.

Importantly, this incident coincides with a shifting electoral dynamic which suggests that the BJP’s Dalit voter base is eroding, especially during national elections. It remains to be seen whether this act was a deliberate attempt by the BJP to subtly distance itself from the social group or an unprecedented lapse. In this context, let us examine the voting behaviour of Dalits in the last two decades.

For the most part of the 2000s, the Congress and several regional parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal secured most of the Dalit votes by championing social justice, framing policies to tackle systemic discrimination and exclusion, and contributing to the larger Dalit cause. Conversely, the BJP was relatively popular among the upper castes and other well-off social groups such as some Other Backward Classes. Such group-based support is also contingent on the nature of party competition at the State level.

The National Election Study data by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) reveals a pattern. While support for the Congress dropped significantly from the party’s heydays in the 2000s, the Congress still retained higher party loyalty among Dalits compared to the BJP in the era of BJP domination in the 2010s and 2020s. Table 1 also shows that the Grand Old Party enjoyed more loyalty among Dalits than possibly other groups. In terms of voter support, the BJP’s support among Dalits increased from what it was in 2004 and 2009, when it was merely 13% and 11% respectively.

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In 2014, the BJP was voted with a majority in the Lok Sabha. Twice as many Dalits voted for the BJP as compared to 2009 (22% in 2014 compared to 11% in 2009). One can argue that this was due to an increased vote share, but voters at large were swayed by the leadership of Narendra Modi. As people were perturbed by rampant corruption, and dissatisfied with the previous government, price rise and underdevelopment, the BJP appeared to be a more promising alternative.

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