Next 15 years will be a tough period in India-China ties, says ex-Foreign Secretary

Former Foreign Secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale predicts challenging India-China relations for the next 15 years, emphasizing the need for strategic policy.

The next 15 years are going to be a really difficult period in the India-China relations, former Foreign Secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale said here on Tuesday.

Delivering a lecture on India-China relations as seen from China’s perspective, jointly organised by the Tamil Nadu Raj Bhavan and the Indian Institute of Technology-Madras (IIT-M), Mr. Gokhale said India should craft a policy that would be able to deal with all the issues for the next 10 years. “The centre of gravity is moving back to the Indo-Pacific, and this is a very positive development for us. The global order is also fragmenting,” he added.

Pointing to the fundamental disagreements with China and the other aspects of India-China relations, Mr. Gokhale said: “We have to prepare our public opinion for a long-term competition with China. The focus has shifted from our western neighbour to the northern neighbour. This northern neighbour is a long-term challenge for us. Today, the public opinion and the projection [of the issue] are either prejudicial or sensational...”

Stressing the need for a profound analysis of the problems in the relations between both the countries, Mr. Gokhale said: “Television channels talk about them [the issues in the ties] for two days and then forget about it. There is no real information given to the public on why they have happened, or what the military, the leaders and the government do, or how the issues are being tackled, or where we are deficient. No profound analysis is being done. It is just sensational news...”

He further said: “Solid research work rarely reaches policy-makers; and the policies are made based on other considerations. We are perhaps the only major power with no system interface or institutionalisation of contacts between the policy-maker and the researcher. I really do not know how to address these lacunae. It is a problem we are struggling with. Whereas, in other countries and in the U.S., there is a system of revolving doors — many people from the academia going to the government, and back...” On the issue of imports from China, Mr. Gokhale said: “A knee jerk reaction, or simply saying we will shut down all Chinese imports, will hurt us badly. It [the approach] has to be nuanced. We have to look at strategic sectors, identify them, and take corrective action. I think that is being done. On the larger issue of consumer goods and others, the government has to devise a strategy as part of which companies can look at alternative sources without affecting the bottom line. Because, at the end, the bottom line for business is profit. You can’t tell a company to face a loss in national interest. It doesn’t work that way. I think this needs to be urgently addressed on a policy level...”

Governor R.N. Ravi said China was an issue, a disease, and an enemy.

IIT-M Director V. Kamakoti said the talk was intended to create awareness of India’s engagement with China among the public.