The Shivshakti-Bhimshakti possibility Premium

The potential alliance could pose a formidable challenge to the ruling coalition

In the last few weeks, a proposed alliance between the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar has been creating a buzz in Maharashtra. If formalised, this ‘Shivshakti-Bhimshakti’ union could see another dramatic alteration of political equations ahead of the civic polls. It is believed that the coming together of the two illustrious families (Thackerays and Ambedkars) with their diverse constituencies (Marathas and Dalits) could pose a formidable challenge to the ruling coalition of the BJP and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s rival Sena faction.

In October, Mr. Ambedkar had publicly expressed his willingness to contest the local bodies elections in alliance with the Thackeray camp and the Congress. Speculation of a potential Sena (UBT)-VBA alliance intensified after Mr. Thackeray thanked Mr. Ambedkar for helping his faction’s candidate, Rutuja Latke, win the Andheri East bypoll in November despite the VBA not officially supporting her.

Last month, the two leaders shared the dais during the inauguration of a website dedicated to the life and work of Mr. Uddhav Thackeray’s grandfather. The two leaders spoke of the strong ties that had existed between their respective grandfathers — Babasaheb Ambedkar and Keshav Sitaram ‘Prabhodankar’ Thackeray — and their shared belief in rooting out the evils of the caste system. Mr. Uddhav Thackeray impressed the need to “uphold Indian democracy and the Constitution”, while making an earnest plea to Mr. Ambedkar to join forces and recall the great work done by their grandfathers. The two leaders had a round of talks after this event.

While there is bonhomie now, the Shiv Sena founded by Bal Thackeray had, until 2019, been the BJP’s natural and long-standing ally and a fierce custodian of Hindutva. Bal Thackeray had strongly opposed Mr. Ambedkar on practically every major issue of concern to the Dalits — from protesting the name change of Marathwada University to B.R. Ambedkar Marathwada University to taking a contrary stance against the 1990 Mandal Commission report. It was the Shiv Sena-BJP government that was in power during the infamous Ramabai incident in Mumbai in 1997 when 10 Dalit protesters were killed in a police firing. But in 2019, Mr. Uddhav Thackeray severed the 25-year-old alliance with the BJP to form the ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi’ (MVA) government with the NCP and the Congress — his father’s most bitter political adversaries.

Given that Maharashtra has witnessed vertiginous ideological pirouetting in the last three years, another ideologically opposed alliance of Mr. Thackeray and Mr. Ambedkar should not come as a surprise. After Mr. Shinde’s coup toppled his MVA government, an embattled Mr. Thackeray is eagerly seeking new allies. His faction is fighting for political survival as 40 of its 55 MLAs and 13 of its 19 MPs have defected to Mr. Shinde’s side. The stakes are high as the BJP, with Mr. Shinde’s help, is straining every sinew to end the Thackeray clan’s 25-year-rule over the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation. The VBA, too, is on the back foot after severing its alliance with the AIMIM forged ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

A new alliance is therefore likely to be a mutual boost for both parties. Mr. Ambedkar’s ideological reservations about the Sena (UBT) have been softened by the latter’s attempt to re-position itself as a ‘Sena 2.0’ by eschewing ‘rigid Hindutva’ and speaking of a ‘progressive Hindutva’ where every community and religion has a place. Today, say observers, Mr. Uddhav Thackeray has the support of a significant minority and Dalit votes. The induction of new leaders such as the influential Ambedkarite, Sushma Andhare, seems to have worked in extending the Sena (UBT)’s traditional base.

Obstacles to this new bonding are ironically the NCP and the Congress. Despite being ideologically aligned with Mr. Ambedkar, both these parties are reluctant to take the VBA on board. The VBA-AIMIM combination had played havoc during the 2019 general election, cannibalising Congress and NCP votes. Analysts say the Congress and NCP are wary of the VBA’s induction in the coalition given the similarities of their respective vote banks.