Poland holds Presidential election; Donald Trump backs nationalist candidate Karol Nawrock

Poland's presidential election between a liberal pro-European mayor and staunch nationalist conservative is too close to predict.

Poland’s Presidential election has come down to a stark ideological choice: a liberal pro-European mayor versus a staunch nationalist conservative. They are polling so close that the outcome is impossible to predict in the run-off round on Sunday (June 1, 2025).

It's not just a domestic affair. President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, and dangled the prospect of closer military ties if Poles choose him over liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Mr. Trump met with Mr. Nawrocki earlier this month at the White House and sent his Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to a meeting of the conservative pressure group Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Poland, where she offered a strong endorsement.

Ms. Noem even dangled the prospect of closer U.S.-Polish military ties in the event of a Mr. Nawrocki win, with the implied warning that a Mr. Trzaskowski victory could jeopardise Poland's security.

At stake is not only Poland's domestic course but also the international standing of a key European Union and NATO member on the alliance's eastern flank, in a region gripped by anxiety over Russia's war in Ukraine.

Sunday's (June 1, 2025) vote will either empower Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-EU reformer, with a Presidential ally who can advance his rule-of-law agenda — or saddle him with a rival who could veto legislation and block government initiatives.

Mr. Trzaskowski's supporters argue that a pro-European leader would enhance Poland's global standing during a time of war in Europe. Mr. Nawrocki's backers believe only conservative rule can safeguard national sovereignty and traditional Christian values, and they say Mr. Trump's support would greatly enhance Poland's security.