Economic burden of rising breast cancer cases in India will be $19.55 billion per year by 2030: study Premium

Study projects rising breast cancer cases in India, with an estimated annual economic burden of $19.55 billion by 2030.

The number of breast cancer cases in India is projected to rise by 50,000 annually this decade, with the economic burden estimated to an average $19.55 billion per year, according to a recent study published in Nature.

Pegging the annual increase of cases at a rate of 5.6%, the study titled ‘Economic Burden of Breast Cancer in India, 2000–2021 and Forecast to 2030’, has estimated the associated economic impact in India using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Cancer is now reported as the fifth-leading cause of death in India (5.7% of all deaths), as per the Medical Certification of Cause of Death (2018). Every year, a rise of around 11.5% in cancer incidence is recorded in India, along with a 13.8% increase in cancer-related deaths.

Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, researchers from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Karnataka adopted a bottom-up approach to estimate direct costs, including hospital visits, treatment, and follow-up care. The longitudinal survey followed 500 breast cancer patients treated at Tata Memorial Centre (TMC) in Mumbai from June 2019 to March 2022. The findings highlighted the severe financial strain faced by most breast cancer patients, with rural and economically disadvantaged households being disproportionately affected.

Denny John, Professor of Public Health at M. S. Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences in Bengaluru, who developed the methodology and supervised the study, said the depreciating currency value and the costs at private healthcare facilities have not been taken into consideration. “We only looked at treatment costs till 2021 due to limited data. So, the economic burden we are estimating is actually an underestimation,” he told The Hindu.

“The ARIMA model predicts that the number of patients with breast cancer in India will continue to increase in the future. There are various possible reasons for this rise. Genetic factors and family history of breast cancer (inheritance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes), obesity, poor lifestyle, ultra-processed food consumption, smoking, and drinking alcohol can increase the risk significantly,” Dr. John, who is also the corresponding author of the study, said.

Over the past 26 years, the age-standardised incidence rate of breast cancer in females increased by 39.1% from 1990 to 2016, with the increase observed in every State. “Current trends point out that a higher proportion of the disease is occurring at a younger age in Indian women, as compared to the West. The survival rate of patients with breast cancer is poor in India as compared to Western countries due to earlier age at onset, late stage of disease at presentation, delayed initiation of definitive management and inadequate/fragmented treatment.