American spy agencies review their misses on Ukraine, Russia

The United States' intelligence agencies have begun a review of how they assess foreign governments' willingness and ability to fight.

The question was posed in a private briefing to US intelligence officials weeks before Russia launched its invasion in late February: Was Ukraine's leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, made in the mold of Britain's Winston Churchill or Afghanistan's Ashraf Ghani?

In other words, would Zelenskyy lead a historical resistance or flee while his government collapsed?

Ultimately, US intelligence agencies underestimated Zelenskyy and Ukraine while overestimating Russia and its president, even as they accurately predicted Vladimir Putin would order an invasion.

But Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, did not fall in a few days, as the United States had expected.

And while American spy agencies have been credited with supporting Ukraine's resistance, they now face bipartisan pressure to review what they got wrong beforehand — especially after their mistakes in judging Afghanistan last year.

Intelligence officials have begun a review of how their agencies judge the will and ability of foreign governments to fight.

The review is taking place while US intelligence continues to have a critical role in Ukraine and as the White House ramps up weapons deliveries and support to Ukraine, trying to predict what Putin might see as escalatory and seeking to avoid a direct war with Russia.