Will Eshwarappa being in the fray help or hurt BJP in Shivamogga Lok Sabha constituency?

K.S. Eshwarappa's decision to contest against BJP in Shivamogga Lok Sabha seat creates uncertainty in upcoming elections.

The election for the Shivamogga Lok Sabha seat took an interesting turn when senior BJP leader K.S. Eshwarappa announced his decision to contest against the official BJP candidate, miffed over his son K.E. Kanthesh being denied the ticket to contest from Haveri. This has left workers in both BJP and Congress camps wondering whose vote bank Mr. Eshwarappa would end up breaking.

BJP veteran B.S. Yediyurappa and his son B.Y. Raghavendra have won the constituency since 2009. Earlier, this was the strong base of the former Chief Minister S. Bangarappa. This time Mr. Raghavendra is facing Geetha Shivarajkumar, Bangarappa’s daughter, of the Congress, besides Mr. Eshwarappa, who is likely to be the rebel candidate. In recent years, the BJP has improved its base across the constituency. This was evident in the huge margins by which Mr. Yediyurappa and his son won the seat in the 2014 and 2019 elections, respectively.

Mr. Eshwarappa, who belongs to the Kuruba caste, has represented Shivamogga constituency five times. He had announced his decision to retire from electoral politics nudged by central leaders last time but has announced his decision to contest to get back over “betrayal” of a promise made to give a ticket to his son. He has squarely blamed Mr. Yediyurappa for the turn of events.

He kept himself away from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Shivamogga on March 18. However, he displays Mr. Modi’s pictures prominently in his publicity materials and campaign meetings. With this, he is firmly banking on his image as a staunch “Hindutva activist”. He has also said that he would declare his support for Mr. Modi soon after getting elected.

Mr. Eshwarappa enjoys the exclusive support of certain groups in Shivamogga constituency. He has a good rapport with other backward classes. It is yet to be seen how far he will succeed in converting his support into votes. Supporters in Mr. Eshwarappa’s camp argue that his contest will dent Mr. Raghavendra’s vote base. They argue that certain sections of hard-core BJP followers, who seem to be with the party’s official candidate, will eventually end up working for Mr. Eshwarappa as they are also upset with “one-family rule” in the party.

BJP leaders, however, maintain that Mr. Eshwarappa’s contest would hardly disturb their vote base and that Mr. Raghavendra would win by a comfortable margin. Being an OBC leader, Mr. Eshwarappa could only damage the traditional vote base of the Congress and, with that, end up benefiting the BJP candidate, they argue. They believe that OBC votes will only get split between Mr. Eshwarappa and Ms. Shivarajkumar, helping Mr. Raghavendra in the process.

“He might get a few thousand votes in the Shivamogga constituency, which he represented in the Assembly. Besides that, he has no influence in other places. Even if it takes some BJP votes, the winning margin may come down, but will not cause Mr. Raghavendra’s defeat,” said a senior leader of the party.