The quiet demographic revolution unfolding in India

India, long viewed as the archetype of a ‘high-fertility developing country’, has quietly become a relatively low-fertility society

For much of the late 20th century, discussions of India’s future were framed by a single anxiety: population growth. The assumption was that rapid fertility would outpace the economy’s ability to generate food, infrastructure, and public services. The infamous “Population Bomb” thesis of Paul and Anne Ehrlich was a key text that informed public policy for decades.

Over the last 25 years, India has experienced a fertility transition of extraordinary speed. Data from successive National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) show Total Fertility Rate (TFR) falling from levels near four children per woman in the 1990s to around replacement level, with most States now at or below 2.1 children per woman.

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The chart provides the sharpest indication of this. India, long viewed as the archetype of a ‘high-fertility developing country’, has quietly become a relatively low-fertility society. In the NFHS-1 and 2 periods, many States reported TFRs between three and five children per woman, and some — particularly in the Northeast — recorded even higher levels. By NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, fertility had dropped substantially. But the most striking change appears in NFHS-5, where a majority of the States cluster below replacement fertility. The dispersion of fertility across States has also narrowed, indicating convergence towards a low-fertility norm across India’s regions.

One can categorise the States by their TFRs into three tiers — low, medium and high. In NFHS-1 and 2, there is a clear bunching of southern States exhibiting lower fertility rates relative to central, northern and northeastern States. However, starting from NFHS-3, these tiers get more heterogeneous, where States from other regions also begin to move into lower fertility categories.

The northeastern States (except Tripura), Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan show the highest declines in fertility across the five rounds. Of the States that had relatively low fertility rates to begin with, Karnataka, West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Odisha have the highest decline.