News Analysis: Ahead of polls, all eyes in Bihar on Chirag Paswan’s next political move Premium

Bihar's political landscape heats up as Chirag Paswan considers contesting Assembly election from a general seat.

Poll-bound Bihar is witnessing fast-paced developments with Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) MP from Jamui, Arun Bharti, brother-in-law of party chief Chirag Paswan, saying that supporters want Mr. Paswan to contest the upcoming Assembly election in Bihar, and that too not from any reserved seat but from a general seat. He said this would send a message that he was a leader able to bridge caste lines.

Mr. Paswan, who is currently the MP from Hajipur (reserved) seat and the Union Food Processing Industries Minister, himself said in Chhattisgarh that he “doesn’t see himself in national politics for long and the only reason he came into politics was Bihar and Biharis”.

Mr. Paswan, who had represented Jamui, a reserved seat, twice in 2014 and 2019, is likely to call a meeting of the LJP(RV) Executive Committee soon to formalise a proposal urging him to contest the upcoming Assembly election. Posters urging him to contest elections from Sheikhpura and Ara seats, and claiming that only he could stop migration from Bihar, are being put up.

However, the buzz around junior Paswan centres around two questions. The first is whether he is gearing up to play a bigger role in State politics at the behest of senior National Democratic Alliance partner BJP. The second is whether he has become overambitious in exploring opportunities to be the next Bihar Chief Minister amid concerns over incumbent Nitish Kumar’s health and a perceived vacuum on the top after the election. The third is whether the BJP would use Mr. Paswan again to dent the plans of both the Opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal and ally Janata Dal (United), as he had done in the 2020 Assembly election.

In 2020, the undivided LJP put up candidates at 130 Assembly seats out of the total 243, especially seats contested by the JD(U) and was instrumental in the latter’s tally in the Assembly falling to just 43. The JD(U) finished third behind the BJP and RJD in the election and it emerged that the LJP had hurt the JD(U)‘s winning chances in at least two dozes seats. Mr. Paswan comes from the Dalit Paswan community which accounts for 5.311% of the State’s population, as per the 2022 caste survey. Currently, Mr. Paswan-led LJP (RV) has five MPs but no representation in the State Assembly.

After the 2020 election, Mr. Kumar and Mr. Paswan had an uneasy relationship as Mr. Kumar and his party leaders accused Mr. Paswan of fielding party candidates to “deliberately” defeat the JD(U). However, there was soon a twist, with LJP spliting into two parties - the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) led by Mr. Paswan’s uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras and the LJP(RV) of Mr. Paswan. Mr. Paras, was sidelined in the NDA and walked out of the block while Mr. Paswan was appointed an Union Minister. Recently, he met Mr. Kumar at his residence and after the meeting, asserted that the “NDA would contest the upcoming Assembly election under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and he will be our leader in the State”.

“Chirag Paswan can contest the Assembly election as every party leader is free to take his own decision but it is very clear that from 2025-30, there will be Nitish Kumar once again,” party spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said on Monday, responding to the recent developments.