In Kerala, Congress has no room for complacency Premium

In the 2026 Kerala Assembly polls, the Congress-led Front could face a stronger BJP and LDF

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) delivered an impressive performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala. It won 18 seats — just one short of the 19 seats it had won in the 2019 elections — out of the total 20 seats.

In 2019, its success was attributed to the massive protest in Kerala against the Supreme Court order allowing women of all ages to enter the Lord Ayyappa temple at Sabarimala, as well as the candidacy of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad. This time, the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), helped the UDF.

In 2019, the Congress leadership believed that the UDF would regain power in the Assembly polls in 2021. They assumed that anti-incumbency against the the LDF government would suffice for the coalition. However, this did not happen, largely because of the party’s complacency.

On the other hand, the LDF won thanks to its various social security measures, its distribution of food kits through ration shops post-COVID-19, and the successful experiment of a rainbow coalition of 11 constituents. The Left made history by winning the 2021 Assembly polls in the State, disrupting the nearly four-decade alternation of power between the LDF and UDF.

Though the Assembly elections are still two years away, the Congress has began to chalk out a plan. The party has announced its national general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, as the candidate for the Wayanad bye-election after her brother, Mr. Gandhi, vacated the seat to retain the Rae Bareli constituency. The bye-election is expected to coincide with the bypolls in the Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly seats, which were vacated by Shafi Parambil from the Congress and K. Radhakrishnan from the CPI (M), respectively, after their win in the Lok Sabha elections.

The UDF will have to contend not just with its traditional rivals, but also with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, which has emerged as a formidable force in the Lok Sabha polls by securing 19.25% of the votes and winning the Thrissur constituency.

Shaken by its electoral debacle, the CPI(M) has began to carry out corrective measures both within the party and government. These rectifications may prompt Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who has faced criticism for his style of governance, to reshuffle the portfolios in Cabinet and introduce measures to monitor the bureaucracy.