Commentary: The bar US set for victory in Iran is higher than Khamenei’s death
CNA
Iran’s leaders need to ensure regime survival and that was always about more than one man, says James M Dorsey from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
SINGAPORE: Iran was betting that United States President Donald Trump would want a quick strike against it for refusing to bow to his demands to give up its nuclear programme, a show of force that would not entangle the US in the sort of lengthy conflict he had railed against his predecessors for.
It was a miscalculation. On Saturday (Feb 28), the US and Israel launched a massive attack on Iran – which Mr Trump called “Operation Epic Fury” – and outrightly stated that the goal is regime change. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of strikes, confirmed Iran state media.
Even so, it would be premature for the US and Israel to declare victory. Mr Khamenei’s death does not mean the collapse of the regime.
The 86-year-old supreme leader’s succession was long in preparation. Iranian officials accelerated efforts after last year’s Israeli and US attack on Iran in which Israel was able to kill much of Iran’s senior military and security command.
Even so, by opting to challenge Mr Trump’s might-is-right approach, Iran was betting on a reading of post-World War II American history that no longer applies with Mr Trump in office. Iran saw a pattern of US military defeats and withdrawals starting with Vietnam in the 1970s and the 1983 pullback from Beirut following embassy and barracks bombings to, most recently, the 2021 retreat from Afghanistan – which Mr Trump is determined to correct.
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Iran’s leaders need to ensure regime survival and that was always about more than one man, says James M Dorsey from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
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