Commentary: Singapore’s record low fertility rate is not all gloom and doom - it’s an opportunity
CNA
Before pronouncing Singapore’s impending end, let’s re-examine whether a declining population will always result in economic catastrophe, says veteran newspaper editor Han Fook Kwang.
SINGAPORE: The news that Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) last year plunged to a record low 0.87 has triggered a wave of doom saying. Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong called it an existential issue and wondered whether, if the trend continues, the country would still be around in 50 years.
There are not many issues which threaten Singapore’s survival in such stark terms – water security and climate change being two other examples.
It is right therefore to highlight the urgency and importance of the fertility problem, even though it is by now a familiar one that Singapore has been grappling with for decades.
This is the oft-repeated doomsday scenario: A fertility rate of less than 2.1 means that the population is not reproducing itself. If nothing is done, the number of people here will start to decline at some point. With fewer people in the workforce, the economy will suffer because there will not be enough workers and less economic activity with fewer people buying and spending their money.
As if this was not bad enough, there is worse: Because fewer babies are born every year, the proportion of young people in the country will decline relative to the total. An ever-larger proportion of older people will need to be supported by an ever-shrinking younger population, straining the country’s resources even further during a time of reduced economic growth.
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