Commentary: Iran strikes will be nasty for oil prices but not a shock
CNA
Tehran can still weaponise oil as its last line of defence, but it’s a huge risk, says Javier Blas for Bloomberg Opinion.
LONDON: One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges.
When the market reopened on Sunday night (Mar 1), oil prices jumped 10 per cent as a result. But seen from a wider angle – looking broadly at the global economy – the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude jumped to about US$80 a barrel.
First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first few days of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available.
The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.
Put the war and its likely geopolitical impact into historical context, and you’d be forgiven for being anxious. The Americans and Israelis launched coordinated air strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other senior officials.
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