China’s COVID trap Premium

The Chinese government seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place as it looks to navigate a

The Chinese government seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place as it looks to navigate a way out of its current COVID-19 troubles. After three years of hard restrictions, a weary Chinese public has expressed its growing frustration with the measures. On the weekend of November 26 and 27, multiple cities around China saw unprecedented protests against COVID-19 lockdowns. The protests have been building, and were triggered by widespread anger on Chinese social media after a fire in an apartment building in Urumqi, in western China, killed at least 10 persons – the delay in extinguishing the fire was widely seen as a result of more than three-month-long lockdown measures in Xinjiang.

The protests spread to dozens of university campuses around the country. One of the largest gatherings was in Shanghai, which had suffered a harsh two month-lockdown earlier this year. On Sunday evening (November 27), a heavy police deployment saw a clampdown on the protests, with several arrested. The BBC said its Shanghai correspondent Ed Lawrence was among those arrested and beaten; he was subsequently released.

China’s government on Tuesday (November 29) said it would ease some measures as well as launch a new push to vaccinate the elderly—a key step that would enable an eventual easing of the unpopular “zero-COVID” policy. It did, also, pledge to crack down hard on activities that “disrupt social order”, reflecting an apparent two-pronged approach to deal with this challenge, with carrots and sticks.

The top official in charge of the pandemic policy, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, in a meeting held on Wednesday (November 28) with scientists of the National Health Commission and with frontline health workers, said the country’s battle against the pandemic was now facing “a new situation” with the “decreased pathogenicity” of the Omicron variant. Her comments marked the first instance of any senior Chinese official saying so, and a stark contrast from continued official messaging describing COVID-19 as a life-threatening disease, which was a justification for continuing the zero-COVID policy. The phrase “decreased pathogenicity of Omicron” was widely highlighted by official media and trending on Chinese social media, reflecting the change in public messaging. Starting today (December 5), many Chinese cities have announced further easing measures, such as no longer requiring PCR tests to use public transportation and allowing close contacts and some cases to isolate at home, instead of central quarantine.

The bottom line: The Chinese government faces two choices, neither of which are without pitfalls. Continuing to open up – as it is seems to have indicated, with easing restrictions despite rising cases in some cities – could result in tens of thousands of cases and huge pressure on its hospital system, given a still large number of unvaccinated elderly. Continuing to emphasise “zero-COVID” – although the horse seems to have bolted – would bring public anger. The government will likely try to achieve an extraordinarily difficult balancing act, with a broad trend towards opening, but one that will be gradual over many months rather than an overnight dropping of restrictions. This could include targeted lockdowns should any area be overwhelmed with cases to ease the burden on hospitals, and a gradual relaxation to buy time to vaccinate the elderly. Ironically, a COVID wave might be the push that finally gets many hesitant elderly to vaccinate, as many saw little incentive to do so previously when COVID cases were few and far between, and without any official time-table towards an exit strategy from zero-COVID that could have driven people to get their jabs. The exit now seems inevitable, but a messy winter likely awaits China.

Former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, who led China during a decade of extraordinary economic growth, passed away in Shanghai on November 30, aged 96. Jiang’s death came at an extraordinary time for Chinese politics, and days after protests in many Chinese cities on a scale not seen since 1989, a year when the death of a pro-reform leader, Hu Yaobang, catalysed a pro-democracy student moment. For many in China, the decade until 2002 under Jiang and former Premier Zhu Rongji is still remembered as an era of relative openness.

Germany’s Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is in New Delhi today (December 5). Ahead of her visit, she shared her thoughts on the relationship with The Hindu’s Suhasini Haidar, expressing hopes India will help the western sanctions effort against Russia, and adhere to the price cap set at $60 per barrel for Russian seaborne exports. In a reversal from her comments in October on a role for the UN in resolving the Jammu Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, which had led to sharp criticism from the Ministry of External Affairs, Ms. Baerbock also said she believes this is a “bilateral” dispute. Ms. Baerbock’s visit is meant to set the stage for the bi-annual India-Germany summit meeting, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to India in early 2023.