25% votes counted: Is AAP performing better in urban than rural areas in 2022 Gujarat elections?

With counting underway, performance in rural and urban seats shows a party’s sphere of influence in

With counting underway, performance in rural and urban seats shows a party’s sphere of influence in Gujarat. In 2017, the BJP aquired close to 60% of the urban votes. With AAP fielding a candidate in nearly every seat this year, will the BJP be able to dominate in urban seats, once again? With 25% of votes counted, the trend so far shows that BJP’s vote share in urban areas has increased by 7% points. With the BJP dominating the urban vote share in 2022, it continued to lead/win in a significant number of urban seats like it did in 2017. 

Table 1 shows a party’s vote share across urban-rural seats. The BJP has secured 66.5% votes in urban areas, an increase of 7% points from 2017. The INC has secured 21.2% votes in urban areas, a decrease of 13.8% points from 2017. Surprisingly, AAP’s vote share was higher among rural seats than urban seats. However these numbers are based on early trends. Close to 14.8% of rural votes went to AAP, and in urban areas only 8.7% of votes went to AAP.  

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Table 2 lays out the number of seats that each party has won/is leading in the urban and rural areas. The numbers coming in at this point show that the BJP is leading/won 18 seats in urban areas, similar to the 2017 elections. In the eight seats AAP was leading, five of them are from rural areas and only one is from urban area. So going by the intial trends, AAP is stronger in rural than urban areas.

The story will be updated when 50% of votes are counted. The observations are based on early trends with just 25% of the votes counted.