US-Russia nuclear treaty expires today. Will it lead to a new arms race?

The only remaining nuclear treaty between the US and Russia expires today. It effectively spells a death knell for nearly three decades of nuclear control cooperation. What was the treaty? Will it lead to a new nuclear arms race? We delve into these questions in this article and explain it in 900 words.

The last nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia is set to expire on Thursday. So does the restraint on deployment of nuclear warheads, raising fears of an unbridled nuclear arms race between the two superpowers. What has triggered concerns is that both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin have been reluctant to extend the treaty amid tensions over the Ukraine war. It effectively spells a death knell for nearly three decades of arms control cooperation between the US and Russia that helped bring an end to the Cold War.

Now, why does this matter? The US and Russia possess 87% of the world's nuclear weapons. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as 'New START', which was renewed in 2010, not only placed limits on the nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia, but also included compliance and verification mechanisms.

Under it, both sides had to share information on the movement of strategic nuclear forces. On-site inspections of missiles at short notice were also part of the deal.

The 'New START', signed by former US President Barack Obama and Russia's Dimitri Medvedev in 2010, crucially gave Moscow a roughly equal footing with the US as a nuclear superpower. The treaty, which was extended for five more years in 2021 by Joe Biden, capped nuclear warheads for both sides at 1,550.

Its expiry has now raised the terrifying prospect of a world without nuclear limits. To put it simply, the US and Russia are now free to produce as many nuclear missiles as they want. Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signing the new START treaty in Prague (Getty)

And both leaders have shown no desire to renew the deal. Trump has sounded less concerned, telling the NYT last month, "If it expires, it expires". In fact, the US President has been a vocal critic of international limits and last year ordered the military to resume testing of nuclear weapons.