The outlook for India in the year ahead Premium

The year 2025 seems poised to bring in a host of fresh troubles that will require deft handling on the part of India’s policymakers

India is at a pivotal moment in its history. It is among the leading nations in the world when it comes to economic growth and political stability. India today projects an atmosphere of peace, which is seemingly out of place in a world that is undergoing a profound shift in its economic and geo-political landscape. India is today privy to the rise of new economic and political groupings.

The year 2024 was a period of pronounced political uncertainty across the globe. Much of the world was a mute witness to the multiple and concurrent conflicts that threaten peace and stability today. This is specially true of Europe and West Asia.

One major tragedy still unfolding is Gaza, which has few parallels, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict contains the seeds of a much wider conflict in the future. India has, however, managed to steer itself successfully within this geo-political landscape.

This may, however, be too good to last. The year 2025 seems poised to bring in a host of fresh troubles that will require deft handling on the part of India’s policymakers. At this time, it might, hence, be wise for India’s leaders to heed the message contained in an ancient Chinese saying that says ‘the wind sweeping through the tower heralds a rising storm in the mountain’.

I begin by assessing the situation with India’s largest neighbour, China. Much is being made of the recent border negotiations and an apparent disengagement at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. This was followed by the first formal meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping meeting in five years, as well as the resumption of the Special Representatives’ talks on border issues. Wiser heads would know that disengagement does not mean ‘dispute resolution’. The border conflict still remains alive and unchanged. Far more needs to be done to reach any kind of détente. India, hence, cannot afford to ‘take its eye off the ball’.

Meanwhile, China has, of late, taken a series of steps to strengthen security cooperation with nations of the Global South, which are aimed at outflanking India. It recently facilitated reconciliation talks that were held in Beijing among various Palestine factions. In September last year, China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI) and deepen cooperation in areas such as counter terrorism, disaster management and public health.

China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October. It took full advantage of the absence of the Indian Prime Minister at the Summit to mute India’s voice at a forum that is perceived as being anti-West. Mr. Xi again took full advantage of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, in Peru in November, to strengthen ties with ‘traditional enemy’, Japan.