The Great Stall of Kyiv

Ground reports from Ukraine and western intelligence indicate that the key to Ukraine’s fight against Russia lies in the resilience being shown on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday said that his country had reached a strategic turning point against the ongoing invasion by Russia. While it is not yet clear what that strategic turning point is, ground reports from Ukraine and western intelligence indicate that the key to Ukraine’s fight against Russia lies in the resilience being shown on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv.

"It is impossible to say how many days we still have to free Ukrainian land. But we can say we will do it. For we have already reached a strategic turning point", Zelenskiy said in a statement. Analysis of the most recent satellite imagery covering more than 15,000 square kilometers collected by US-based space tech company Maxar Technologies suggests re-posturing of Russian ground forces approaching Kyiv.

Western intelligence inputs estimate at least three likely axes of advancement towards Kyiv by the Russian forces for a renewed offensive activity in the coming days. Groupings of the Eastern Military District and Airborne Forces of Russia have been looking to acquire new positions to the northwest of Kyiv. To the northeast of the capital city, Russia’s Central Military District - known to be lighter and more rapid - has been trying to gain new ground. The earlier seen large Russian military convoy has largely dispersed and redeployed. These two alignments are expected to get support from another likely axis approached by the Western Military District grouping moving from the east. The advancement made by the Southern Military District and Airborne grouping is still far away from being in a position to encircle Kyiv from the south. Intelligence inputs suggest that Russian ground forces have been making slow and limited progress in this theatre.

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Russian armored units are seen maneuvering through and around the suburban towns in the new satellite pictures. This comes after the Russian convoy positions were targeted by Ukraine at multiple locations leading to Kyiv. Some of these spots where moving Russian armored columns were successfully hit by the Ukrainian artillery, have been identified almost 28 km from the Presidential Building of Kyiv.

Very poor tactics displayed by this Russian armored force so close to Kyiv. They're well within range of Ukrainian artillery in Kyiv, they're on an obvious avenue of approach, and they still decided to bunch up like this, leaving them more vulnerable to indirect fire. pic.twitter.com/3ShhyF5OsE

Parts of the Russian column can be seen repositioned along tree lines near Lubyanka. Images also show towed artillery howitzers in firing positions at the nearby locations.