Slow start for Laal Singh Chaddha and Raksha Bandhan, experts bank on word-of-mouth

After a spate of box office duds coming from Bollywood, a lot is riding on the fate of Aamir Khan's Laal Singh Chaddha and Akshay Kumar's Raksha Bandhan. But a slow start to both these movies has already made many experts concerned.

After a spate of box office under-performers like Samrat Prithviraj, Shamshera, Jayeshbhai Jordaar, and others, much is riding on the fate of Aamir Khan-starrer Laal Singh Chaddha and Akshay Kumar’s Raksha Bandhan. According to Bollywood Hungama, Laal Singh Chaddha, made on a budget of Rs 180 crore, has sold around 30,000 tickets at the three national chains, PVR, Inox and Cinepolis, as of Wednesday morning. In terms of all India sales, the film, which is an official remake of the hit Hollywood film Forrest Gump, sold approximately 57,000 tickets on the opening day.

“Poor advance booking for Laal Singh Chaddha till now. Reasons could be poor word of mouth, consumers travelling due to long weekend or social media backlash,” Abneesh Roy, Executive Director, Edelweiss Securities, said. For the last few weeks, the film was facing social media backlash and boycott calls because of old statements of Aamir Khan, who has also produced the film along with Viacom18 studios. Roy, however, adds that it is still a bit early to take a final call.

“If word of mouth picks up, we could see a revival,” he adds. Aamir Khan’s last outing was Yash Raj Films venture Thugs of Hindostan in 2018, made on a whopping budget of Rs 300 crore. The film also starred Amitabh Bachchan and earned only half that sum in Indian net collections.Raksha Bandhan, on the other hand, saw an advance booking of 35,000 tickets sold for Day 1 at the box office with a total collection of approx. Rs. 69 lakh. The film is produced by Zee Studios and director Aanand L Rai at an approximate budget of over Rs 70 crore. Akshay Kumar has had three flops in Bell Bottom (Aug 19, 2021), Bachchhan Paandey (March 18, 2022) and Samrat Prithviraj (June 3, 2022) over the past year. His only hit during this period has been Sooryavanshi (Nov 5, 2021), which was made on a production budget of about Rs 160 crore and earned a net lifetime collection of Rs 196 crore in India and Rs 295 crore gross worldwide collections, according to Bollywood Hungama.His latest release, Samrat Prithviraj collected an estimated Rs 200 crore venture, again backed by Yash Raj Films, which had him playing the eponymous Rajput king, opened to an underwhelming Rs 10.7 crore net collections in India and went on to bomb with a lifetime India net collection of Rs 68.05 crore and gross worldwide collection of Rs 90.32 crore, going by Bollywood Hungama figures. Trade analyst Komal Nahta says they are both costly, big-banner and well-mounted films, which are coming when Bollywood is reeling under the pressure of losses.

“Furthermore, they are coming in a week which is the best of the year. Over the next eight days, there are four holidays owing to Raksha Bandhan, a long weekend including Independence Day, followed by Janmashtami and Parsi New Year, which may be partial holidays. It’s the best opening week any film can ask for," Nahta says.Lately, with back-to-back downers, big star-backed Bollywood films have been tanking at the box office. Elara Capital’s vice president Karan Taurani says he expects Laal Singh to have a stronger opening with Rs 16 crore, and a lifetime collection of Rs 150-160 crore. On the other hand, Raksha Bandhan is estimated to open with Rs 9 crore on day one and may end up reporting lifetime collection of Rs 80-90 crore. “Aamir Khan’s films have reported a collection of Rs 280 crore per film (basis average of his last three films as a lead actor); hence, if the above estimate of Laal Singh Chadha is reported, it will be considered below par, given the scale of the film. We maintain that Hindi Box Office is slated to decline 22 per cent (vs pre-COVID levels) in Q2FY23, as content has been below par so far and we are already at the end of first half of the quarter, with no film reporting a positive surprise,” he said.While Bollywood’s performance has been dismal, four successive super-hits from the South's Pushpa: The Rise, RRR, KGF: Chapter 2 and Vikram (to a much smaller extent in Hindi as Vikram: Hitlist) - have grossed more than Rs 3,000 crore worldwide, including nearly Rs 800 crore in Hindi net collections. Comparatively, the best-performing Hindi films lately - Gangubai Kathiawadi, The Kashmir Files and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2, have together grossed Rs 811 crore worldwide, including Rs 566 crore net collections in India.

From January 2020 to April 2022, of the country’s Rs 9,759-crore cumulative gross box office collection, the four South Indian languages contributed 57.3 per cent. Hindi managed 31 per cent. Seven of the top 10 grossers in this span were from the South, pegs Ormax Media data.

Pressure to perform on Laal Singh Chaddha and Raksha Bandhan and upcoming big-ticket films like Ranbir Kapoor-starrer Brahmastra and Shah Rukh Khan’s Pathaan is immense. Fingers crossed.