Little correlation between higher temperatures and lower turnout: Data

Analysis of voter turnout in Lok Sabha elections, correlation with temperature, and factors influencing participation in India.

So far, 189 out of 543 constituencies have voted in two phases in the Lok Sabha elections. We do not have the overall turnouts in phase 1 and phase 2 as the Election Commission of India (ECI) has not provided updated figures or electors’ information for all the seats that went to the polls in these two phases. But the ECI has provided seat-by-seat voter turnout data. The numbers suggest that turnout has fallen somewhat in both phases compared to the 2019 elections. Overall, voter participation or the turnout rate increased or stayed the same in only 32 of these 189 seats compared to the 2019 elections; the rest have seen a decrease in turnout. In the 2014 elections, 60 seats saw an increased turnout and 129 saw a decreased turnout (Table 1).

Table 1 | The table shows the temperatures and turnouts in seats on the days when polling was held in 2019 and 2024.

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One of the key reasons propounded for the lower turnout is the ongoing heat wave across many States. The ECI has taken note of the heatwave and is trying to find ways of tackling it. India is a predominantly tropical country with many States, including in the Gangetic plains, the central, western, eastern plains, and the peninsular regions, experiencing a relatively hot summer this year.

Also read: Hot button: On the voter and heat exposure

Did higher day temperatures result in subdued voting across constituencies in India? A look at constituencies in the aforementioned regions (172 seats overall) show that there was an increase in temperature in 118 seats compared to 2019 and a decrease only in 54 seats. In 2014, there was an increase in temperature in 142 seats and a decrease in 30 seats compared to the previous elections.

Table 2 | The table shows the constituency-wise turnouts and temperatures for seats that went to polls in first two phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The table also looks at the difference in turnouts and temperatures in seats that went to polls in 2024 from what was registered in those seats in the 2019 and 2014 elections.