Kerala Polls 2026: Why Thiruvananthapuram district seats will be closely watched
India Today
Thiruvananthapuram's diverse voting history highlights key battlegrounds for Kerala polls 2026.
Three elections, three different outcomes—that is how the people of Thiruvananthapuram district have voted in recent years. While the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) dominated the 2021 Assembly elections, the honours went to the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
However, the 2025 local body elections brought a surprise. In December last year, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerged as the single largest group, winning 50 of the 101 seats in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The LDF, which had ruled the corporation for 45 years, was reduced to just 29 seats, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) managed only 19.
The Thiruvananthapuram Corporation verdict was a major boost for the BJP, which had won a Lok Sabha seat and increased its vote share in the state during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In terms of Assembly segments, the party led in 11 constituencies, a significant jump from just one in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The rise of the BJP is set to challenge the traditional LDF-UDF polarity in Kerala, at least in urban pockets. Thiruvananthapuram district comprises two Lok Sabha and 14 Assembly constituencies. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF won 13 of the 14 seats. While it had also secured a majority of seats in 2016, the victory was not as decisive as in 2021. The 2011 Assembly elections told a different story, with the Congress winning eight of the seats.
One of the surprises in 2016 was the result in Nemom, one of the district’s 14 constituencies. It was here that the BJP opened its account in the Assembly elections. The constituency is among a few in the state where the two dominant social groups—the Nairs and the Ezhavas—can decisively influence the outcome.
While the Ezhavas are traditionally seen as LDF supporters, Nair support has often been split between the LDF and the UDF. The first signs of cracks in the support bases of both fronts began to appear in 2016. The BJP’s win was perhaps a manifestation of this churn. Data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) shows that sections of both Nairs and Ezhavas shifted toward the BJP that year. The trend has likely intensified in subsequent elections.
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