Kerala Assembly elections: Kunnathunadu’s high voter turnout keeps all three fronts guessing

Kunnathunadu's record voter turnout in Kerala elections leaves UDF, LDF, and Twenty20 strategizing for uncertain outcomes.

The Kunnathunadu Assembly constituency in Kerala is no stranger to heavy polling, having consistently recorded voter turnout above 80% since 2011, when it was reserved for Scheduled Castes. The constituency maintained that trend for the fourth consecutive time, registering over 83% turnout as per initial official figures, the highest in Ernakulam district, the Kerala Assembly polls on April 9.

The high polling percentage, however, can hardly be seen as indicative of any particular front gaining an edge considering that the constituency has alternated between the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF). UDF’s V.P. Sajeendran won two successive terms from 2011, before LDF’s P.V. Sreenijin wrested the seat in the last election. The two are once again in direct contest, with Babu Divakaran, a former Congress leader, adding a third dimension as the candidate of Twenty20, which is buoyed by its new partnership with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Unsurprisingly, all three fronts claimed the high turnout to their advantage.

Mr. Sreenijin expressed cautious optimism about retaining the seat, citing four factors that he said influence neutral votes in every election: development issues, ‘existential concerns’ of minorities, anti-incumbency against the sitting legislator, and anti-incumbency against the State government. “But there is no anti-incumbency against me as a legislator or against the government on account of lack of development. Kunnathunadu has a sizeable number of minority voters, and their anti-NDA sentiment is likely to favour me,” he said.

However, Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan, at a press conference in Kochi on Friday, voiced confidence that the UDF would reclaim the seat with “a significant majority.” He argued that Twenty20 would be reduced to “a sorry third”, as minorities within its vote base, including former Congress supporters, would return to the UDF fold.

Ernakulam MP Hibi Eden echoed the sentiment. “Twenty20 lost its appeal the moment it tied up with the BJP, which will erode its minority support base. They believe the party’s vote base, combined with that of the BJP, will give them a boost. That is sheer folly. Joining hands with the NDA will prove a major setback to them,” he said.