INDIA and the hurdle of convincing the voter Premium

INDIA needs to counter criticism of it being merely an anti-Modi alliance, dispel doubts regarding its vision and governance capabilities and must take steps to appeal to the average Indian voter

The formation of INDIA (the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance), the 26-member Opposition alliance, has again highlighted an oft-cited adage: elections and alliances are not only about arithmetic but chemistry too. Indeed, multiple elections in the past have shown that arithmetic alone is no guarantee of success. On paper, the INDIA front appears to have arithmetic on its side, but its chemistry is questionable. Without getting its chemistry right, INDIA would find it difficult to take on the might of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) formidable election machinery that derives its strength from Narendra Modi’s charisma and chemistry.

While the arithmetic versus chemistry debate has been the subject of much punditry, it is imperative to understand what chemistry implies and entails when it comes to alliance building and elections. In the case of alliances such as INDIA that are composed of diverse parties, there are two aspects of the chemistry of such alliances: chemistry between the alliance partners as well as the alliance’s appeal and perception among the voters. To get its chemistry right, INDIA would have to work on both these aspects.

INDIA has many parties which are engaged in direct political contests or have a history of hostilities. Leaders of these parties merely forging an alliance will not translate to electoral success as long as it is accepted by cadres or core voters of the party. The chemistry between the alliance partners depends on the level of animosity between the supporters and voters of these parties which is a product of their past rivalries. Higher animosity between two parties would mean poor chemistry between the parties, resulting in a lower vote transfer as supporters of these parties would be reluctant to vote for a former foe turned ally. For instance, one of the primary reasons for the failure (and lower vote transfer) of the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance was the poor chemistry — a direct consequence of the higher level of animosity between the voters of these parties with a fraught history.

The second aspect is the chemistry with voters which is determined by the alliance’s pitch to the voters and its perception among them. Over the years, the Narendra Modi-led BJP has deepened its chemistry with voters through Mr. Modi’s personal charisma and a slew of welfare measures among other things. To ensure good chemistry with the voters, INDIA would have to successfully counter the BJP’s accusations of it being a ragtag coalition of overly ambitious individuals and parties with the single-point agenda of unseating Mr. Modi.

A joint, well-coordinated and sustained campaign against the ruling regime and its failures where different parties and leaders of INDIA speak in unison would help the alliance in channelising the grievance of their voters as well as the median voter to a specific action — of voting for the combined Opposition. It would improve the chemistry between different parties in the alliance by overcoming the reluctance of voters leaning towards one of the Opposition parties from voting for an ideologically distant alliance party candidate.

Research shows that such campaigns can boost cross-party strategic voting and vote transfer by 10 percentage points. INDIA’s strategy during the monsoon session of Parliament and the no-confidence motion had some evidence of such a campaign.

Given INDIA’s composition, i.e., former foes and parties with contrasting ideologies, it is important to ensure that no one party’s or group’s ideological or policy agendas are seen to be dominating over another’s. This calls for reasonable inter-party compromises which need to be highlighted to mute ideological differences, deepen chemistry between allies and facilitate vote transfer between parties with contrasting ideologies. The use of the word “inclusive” instead of “secular” could be seen as a step in that direction. It ensures that core voters of a party such as the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) are not alienated.