BJP could have gained 14 extra seats in 2019 if constituencies had been delimited: Data

Potential delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies could shift power from non-BJP parties to BJP, impacting national politics significantly

The anxiety about delimitation is not only about the potential reduction of political power for peninsular States to the benefit of heartland ones. An inter-State delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies can potentially also result in a shift of power from non-BJP parties to the BJP.

An analysis suggests that with the same vote share, the BJP would have gained 14 extra seats in 2019 and six extra seats in 2024 if Lok Sabha constituencies had been delimited across State boundaries according to the 2011 Census.

Table 1 shows the current MP seats in select major States and the potential change in those seats if delimitation takes place and retains the total number of parliamentary constituencies as it is.

It shows that Tamil Nadu’s MP count will decrease from 39 to 32, Kerala’s from 20 to 15, and Karnataka’s from 28 to 27, whereas Uttar Pradesh’s MP count will increase from 80 to 88, Bihar’s from 40 to 46, Rajasthan’s from 25 to 30 and Madhya Pradesh’s from 29 to 32.

An apportionment of the possible post-delimitation number of Lok Sabha seats in each State to parties as per their actual share of votes and seats in 2019 and 2024 suggests that all the extra seats the BJP stands to gain are in its key strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Haryana, while it may be marginally affected by the reduction of total seats in Karnataka, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, and West Bengal.

This means delimitation will reinforce two broad political trends that are already visible — namely, the reduced role of regional parties and the reduced role of the southern States in national politics. The BJP will reinforce its position as the national hegemon, but with its support concentrated in the heartland.

The BJP therefore has an incentive to not interrupt the constitutional scheme of things which requires delimitation after the first Census after 2026. But if the BJP thinks it is wise to reassure the southern States and Punjab on this issue and use this as an opportunity to expand its footprint, its course may be different.