US strikes Iran, South Korea learns a tough lesson on THAAD gamble

South Korea had put a lot at stake for cooperating with the US on the THAAD project – from the wrath of China, Seoul's largest trading partner, to protests from its own citizens. Now, ten years later, one may wonder if the gamble was too big a political investment.

A decade back, cooperation with the US found South Korea dealing with a furious neighbour – China. Seoul had agreed with Washington to deploy America's terminal high altitude area defence (THAAD) anti-missile system on their soil, saying it was solely for defensive purposes to thwart North Korean threats. Beijing, however, didn't agree quite as much. They saw the move as one that could potentially compromise China's security. Seoul faced several consequences – Chinese tourism to South Korea nearly stopped, Hyundai and Kia had to close factories in China, and a Hallyu ban was imposed that saw K-pop stars quit the industry, South Korean products disappear from stores and cultural events being cancelled. Cut to 2026, the US has removed these very THAAD batteries from South Korea to be used in the Iran war.

Seoul is rattled and has opposed the redeployment, even as South Korean President Lee Jae Myung asserted that THAAD's removal would not cause a massive setback to its capability to deter North Korean threats. He told his cabinet Tuesday that while Seoul can express opposition, America cannot be stopped from shipping weapons overseas for their own military needs. "The reality is that we cannot fully push through our position," Lee said, according to CNBC.

South Korea may have learnt a lesson or two from the turn of events about political alliances. They had put a lot at stake. Relations with China, Seoul's largest trading partner, reached an all-time low. Besides, locals in the tiny town of Seongju protested, fearing they would have to bear the brunt of North Korea's ballistic missile launches. These people held marches, sometimes sit-downs, with anti-THAAD placards. But the government avoided everything, keeping their North Korean agenda in focus.

Besides THAAD, some US Patriot missile defence systems have been redeployed to the Middle East to be used in the Iran war. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said Friday that the militaries of both sides were discussing overseas shipping.

THAAD missile defence systems are designed to intercept short, medium and limited intermediate-range ballistic missiles during their terminal phase, permitting the elimination of threats before they reach their targets. America operates as many as eight THAAD batteries across the globe, including six deployments in South Korea and two in Guam. Each battery costs about USD 1 billion and comprises six truck-mounted launchers, a tactical command unit, a radar system, and dozens of interceptor missiles.

The sudden redeployment of the missile defence systems from South Korea to the Middle East shows US President Donald Trump's commitment to the region more than its East Asian ally.