Trump says nobody expected Iran's escalation, but experts warned him beforehand

Trump claimed Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations were unexpected. But intelligence reports and experts had warned in advance that Tehran could escalate by targeting regional countries.

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries hosting American military bases came as a “surprise” to Washington, claiming that no one had anticipated such a move. However, reports suggest that he had been briefed even before the operation that Tehran could escalate by targeting Gulf nations.

According to sources cited by Reuters, pre-war intelligence assessments had identified the possibility of Iran striking countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. While such an escalation was not considered certain, it was “definitely on the list of potential outcomes.”

The President was also reportedly warned ahead of the operation that Iran could attempt to shut down the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a move that would have significant global economic repercussions.

Apart from the official and intelligence reports, experts on West Asia, including those with close ties to the White House, had also publicly cautioned about the likelihood of Iranian retaliation.

Nate Swanson, a veteran of the US State Department who worked on American policy toward Iran for nearly 20 years, and has also served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team, had warned of escalation in an article published four days before the attack.

“I can see that Trump fundamentally fails to grasp that Iranian weakness will not lead the country to capitulate at the negotiating table. On the contrary, Iran’s present fragility only narrows the space for meaningful compromises,” he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine.