Social Security’s 2027 COLA could rise if energy prices stay high
USA TODAY
It's admittedly a little early, but one specific rising cost could have an impact on the 2027 COLA, and it will be a while until we know for sure.
It's admittedly a little early, but most notable projections believe retirees will get a similar cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, from Social Security in 2027. According to the Senior Citizens League, the latest expectation is for a 2.8% COLA next year — the same as retirees received in 2026.
However, there could be one specific rising cost that triggers a greater-than-expected COLA. Here's what it is, what impact it could have on the 2027 COLA, and why it will be a while until we know for sure.
Energy prices are a major component of the inflation gauge used to calculate the Social Security COLA, the CPI-W. And the published estimates don't reflect recent developments in the energy sector.
Specifically, the conflict in Iran and the uncertainty surrounding it have pushed oil prices much higher. The price of oil has risen by a staggering 65% so far this year and is up by 35% in just the first 12 days of March.
Energy is generally one of the most volatile components of inflation data and, until recently, has been a catalyst in the other direction. For example, in February's CPI data, gasoline prices had fallen year over year, but this was before the recent surge.
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