Rahul Gandhi’s political chess, juggling between Wayanad and Rae Bareli, leaves Congress in a quandary in Kerala

Rahul Gandhi's dual-seat strategy of Wayanad and Rae Bareli in 2024 Lok Sabha elections may impact Congress's prospects in Kerala.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, fighting the second seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from another perceived stronghold of the party in Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh, may have brought himself to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Hindi heartland, but a win from both seats, including Wayanad, where he is seeking re-election, may put the Congress party in a predicament in Kerala.

If Mr. Gandhi relinquishes the Wayanad seat, many Congress leaders believe that it will impact the Congress party’s prospects in the Kerala Assembly elections in 2026. Besides, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) may likely intensify its demand for a third seat if a by-election occurs in the Wayanad constituency, as the party has been maintaining that Mr. Gandhi’s core supporters are from the IUML in the constituency spread over three Assembly segments in Wayanad district, three in Malappuram, and one in Kozhikode. Besides, the looming vacancy of a winnable Rajya Sabha seat in July is hanging over the head of the Congress leadership.

While Congress functionaries painstakingly attempted to justify the political move, stating that Mr. Gandhi’s candidature in Rae Bareli was to strengthen the INDIA bloc and that his presence was required in north India, CPI leader Annie Raja, who is the Left front’s candidate from Wayanad, criticised the decision as a “betrayal” of the people of the hill constituency.

The BJP’s Central leadership, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kerala’s State president K. Surendran, who is the NDA’s candidate from Wayanad, taunted the narrative, saying that Mr. Gandhi’s decision stemmed from “fear”, having lost Amethi, a constituency he won thrice consecutively (2004, 2009, and 2014) to Smriti Irani of the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In a third electoral face-off with Ms. Irani at Amethi, many Congress leaders felt that the optics would have been different had Mr. Gandhi projected a fighter image rather than choosing a safe seat in Uttar Pradesh. Others believe that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, his sister, would have been a more suitable candidate for Rae Bareli, a seat long held by their mother, Sonia Gandhi.

Despite the Congress’s historical success in Rae Bareli, it cannot be considered a secure seat for Mr. Gandhi, as none of the five Assembly seats in the Lok Sabha constituency is held by the party. Four belong to the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Rae Bareli segment was won by the BJP. Moreover, the political dynamics has shifted considerably ever since Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath started helming the Uttar Pradesh administration from 2017.

In the scenario of an unsuccessful mandate in the tight-rope walk in Rae Bareli, Mr. Gandhi would not have to face a dilemma because the Congress party is confident about his victory from Wayanad, albeit with a reduced margin compared to the victory margin of 4.31 lakh votes he secured in the 2019 polls.