Maharashtra political crisis | how the numbers stand

As the members of Shiv Sena rebel, the future of the Maha Vikas Aghadi remains uncertain. We look at the numbers ruling the political turmoil in Maharashtra.

The story so far: In a jolt to the Maha Vikas Aghadi, senior Shiv Sena Minister Eknath Shinde and 11 other MLAs revolted against the party on Monday night and camped in Surat’s Le Meridian Hotel. The number of rebels has now inflated to 33 MLAs who have now shifted base to the Radisson Blu hotel in Assam’s Guwahati.

Mr. Shinde’s rebellion comes a day after BJP managed to win five of the ten seats up for grabs in the Maharashtra Legislative Council, displaying the support of 134 MLAs including 106 BJP MLAs, three each from Congress and Shiv Sena, and other independent MLAs.

With this rebellion, the reduced numbers are effectively

After the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena, which fought jointly as the ‘Mahayuti’ alliance, won a majority against the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-Congress ‘Maha Aghadi’ alliance.

With the souring of BJP-Shiv Sena ties, the Sena partnered with NCP and Congress to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi government – displaying a strength of 154 MLAs and passing the 144-seat halfway mark. In subsequent bypolls, BJP has gained a seat while NCP has lost one. Sena MLA Ramesh Latke’s death and the jailing of NCP MLAs Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik have reduced the 288-member Assembly to 285.

As the reduced strength of the Assembly now stands at 252 seats (285 MLAs- 33 Sena rebel MLAs), the halfway mark has now been reduced to 126 – pushing the MVA govt into a minority. Even if the 33 Sena MLAs switch to the BJP, they will have to resign and contest in by-polls.

In the 288-seat Assembly, the BJP-Shiv Sena together crossed the 144-seat halfway mark with a 161-seat majority after the 2019 polls. However, Shiv Sena insisted on a 50:50 formula sharing the Chief Minister’s post with BJP for two-and-a-half years each and an equal distribution of ministry portfolios. Denying that such a formula was ever agreed upon prior to the polls, then-CM Devendra Fadnavis asserted that the ‘next govt will be formed under a BJP CM.’ Moreover, BJP also allegedly offered only 13 cabinet portfolios to Sena while keeping 26 for its ministers, further irking Sena leadership.