How AAP helped BJP get its biggest landslide in Gujarat

The AAP played spoiler in about 50 triangular contests in the State, helping to split the opposition vote to the benefit of he BJP, by getting massive — and puzzling — levels of support in the tribal belt

In the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Gujarat lies the story of the Congress decimation in a State where, for the last two decades, it has held at least 50 Assembly seats and a decent vote share above 35%.

This time, the AAP’s entry has completely changed the political configurations and calculations in about 50 seats, badly affecting the main opposition party’s prospects in those seats. 

The seats in the tribal belt running from north to central and south Gujarat, where the Congress appeared to have an advantage against the BJP, mostly went to the ruling party’s kitty thanks to the division of opposition votes between the AAP and the Congress. 

As per the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) voting data, around 50 seats, including the seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), the Koli-dominated seats in Saurashtra, and the seats with substantial Patidar votes, saw a serious triangular fight in which the saffron party benefitted due to the split in the votes for the opposition.

In the entire tribal belt, the AAP has pocketed a sizeable vote share. For instance, in the contest for the Khedbrahma seat, the AAP candidate fetched a whopping 55,590 votes. The Congress candidate Tushar Chaudhary won with a slender margin of a little over 2,000 votes against the BJP candidate Ashwin Kotwal, a Congress turncoat who only joined the BJP in July. 

Similarly, in tribal districts such as Dahod and Chhota Udepur in central Gujarat, and Narmada and Tapi in south Gujarat, the AAP candidates got a massive vote share; in several places, they even snagged the runner-up position.

According to tribal leaders from both the BJP and the Congress, the support for the AAP among tribals is surprising and puzzling for several reasons. First, the party did not have any prominent tribal leader in the State.