Headline numbers mask AGP’s steady slide despite 10 years in power Premium

BJP’s junior ally in Assam, AGP, gets the same number of seats to contest as last time, but a granular analysis reveals slipping ground

While an upstart born in the aftermath of the anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act protests manages to hold its own against the principal Opposition party, the one synonymous with regionalism in Assam is in terminal decline even after enjoying the perks of power for the past decade.

The Raijor Dal, with party chief Akhil Gogoi its sole MLA in the outgoing Assembly and that too as an Independent contesting from jail, has managed to wrangle 11 seats from the Congress after calling off alliance talks and announcing candidates for 13 seats.

The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), BJP’s junior partner in the ruling National Democratic Alliance, has been given 26 seats. The headline number remains intact from the last election in 2021 – the party contested the same number of seats and won nine – but it’s the constituencies AGP has been relegated to that betrays the steady slide and dwindling bargaining chips vis-a-vis- its senior partner.

Party president and Minister Atul Bora keeps his Bokakhat constituency and Cabinet colleague Keshab Mahanta has been renominated from Kaliabor. Diptimayee Choudhury, the wife of party elder Phani Bhushan Choudhury, who now represents Barpeta in the Lok Sabha after serving eight consecutive terms as MLA from Bongaigaon, has been renominated. Prithviraj Rabha will defend his Tezpur seat while Prodip Hazarika has been shifted to Sivasagar from Amguri due to delimitation.

These are perhaps the only hurrahs for the regional outfit that was forged in the crucible of the Assam Agitation, swept to power in the mid-1980s, and secured another term in government a decade later. Thirteen of the AGP’s candidates this time are from the minority community, the highest proportion among parties barring Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

While Mr. Bora explained it away as winnability arithmetic and “local dynamics”, the plain truth is that the BJP, which named no Muslim candidate among its 89, has saddled its ally with the bulk of the post-delimitation constituencies with heavy minority concentration.