Global air travel growth slows; IATA projects 4.99 billion passengers in 2025

Global air traveller numbers to reach 4.99 billion in 2025 due to trade tensions, slow aircraft supply, and rising costs.

Air traveller numbers globally will not grow to the previously projected figure of 5.22 billion and may stop at 4.99 billion as trade tensions have dented consumer confidence, said the global airlines body on Monday (June 2, 2025). Its chief, Willie Walsh, also warned that if aerospace was not kept outside trade wars, the slow supply of aircraft since the Covid-19 pandemic could worsen.

Passenger numbers are projected to reach a record high of 4.99 billion in 2025. Though this is a growth of 4% compared to 2024, it is below the earlier projection of 5.22 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) revised outlook for the financial year presented during its Annual General Meeting in New Delhi.

Challenges with slow aircraft deliveries impacting airlines worldwide continue to persist.

“Aircraft manufacturing sector is failing badly. And everyone in this room feels that frustration,” Mr. Walsh said. He rued that the number of aircraft deliveries scheduled for 2025 is 26% less than what was promised a year ago. “This hits revenues because some demand goes unmet.”

To compound matters, airlines also have to grapple with additional costs in maintaining old aircraft and leasing them from the secondary market, which has dried up due to huge demand from airlines.

Industry profit in 2025 is expected to improve over 2024. Net profits are projected to reach USD 36 billion in 2025 as compared to USD 32.4 billion in 2024, but this figure is slightly lower than the earlier estimate of USD 36.6 billion.

Net profit margin at 3.7% also improves from the 3.4% earned in 2024.