Control of Congress may come down to a handful of House races in New York

New Yorkers pivotal in U.S. House control, as Republicans defend suburban seats against Democratic challenges.

New Yorkers could play an outsized role on Tuesday (November 5, 2024) in determining control of the U.S. House as Republicans cling to suburban seats they won two years ago by seizing on fears of crime, and Democrats try to claw them back by warning that a right-wing Congress might ban abortion.

If everything goes their way, Democrats hope to pick off a handful of Republican incumbents in congressional races on Long Island and in the Hudson River Valley, as well as a central New York district that state leaders recently reconfigured to make more favorable to Democrats.

But the GOP could wind up holding all of that ground and has a chance of unseating one or two incumbent Democrats.

Most of the tightest contests are happening in places where voters favored President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in 2020, but then sent a crop of Republicans to Congress two years later.

The slew of competitive races underscore the hidden political complexity of New York, which is associated with Democrats like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez but has also given rise to Republican stars like U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, the chair of the House Republican Conference. All three were heavily favored to win reelection Tuesday.

On Long Island, Republican U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is in a tough rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen, a former town supervisor he defeated in 2022, but who might do better with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.

In central New York, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams is trying to hold off a challenge from Democratic state Sen. John Mannion. Williams won his seat two years ago by a margin of only around 2,600 votes and this year his district was redrawn to exclude some rural areas where he had garnered support.