Why can't Iran afford a long war?
India Today
Iran, which is being attacked by US and Israel through airstrikes, faces escalating pressure as economic challenges and military limitations raise serious questions about its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict amid recent regional escalations.
The US–Israel strikes that killed top Iranian leaders and officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have dramatically escalated tensions in the Middle East, sparking travel chaos in the region and uncertainty over Iran's future.
Yet despite its fierce rhetoric and retaliatory actions, a prolonged, high-intensity war is something Iran can ill afford, according to a broad consensus among security and economic experts.
Iran’s ability to sustain a long conflict is constrained first and foremost by its economy. The country has been under severe US sanctions since the Donald Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018.
Oil exports, Iran’s main revenue source, have fluctuated sharply with sanctions enforcement, while currency volatility and persistently high inflation remain deep structural weaknesses. A drawn-out war would intensify these pressures, heightening public discontent and economic instability.
Iran possesses formidable missile and drone manufacturing capabilities and boasts the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East. Estimates from US defence briefings and independent military think tanks suggest a stockpile of roughly 2,000–3,000 ballistic missiles, alongside hundreds of cruise missiles and thousands of drones, including loitering munitions.
However, experts caution that sustained, high-tempo warfare would rapidly strain Iran’s air-defence networks, ballistic missile reserves, command-and-control nodes and energy infrastructure.
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