Why BJP is struggling in Kerala bypolls as campaign deadline looms Premium

BJP struggles in Kerala bypolls due to delayed candidate selection, tepid response, and historical poor performance.

With less than a week for the campaigning to end for the bypolls to the Wayanad Lok Sabha and Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly seats in Kerala, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself lagging behind in the no-holds-barred fight between the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front in the State.

The reasons range from delay in the announcement of candidates to questionable selection of nominees. The party’s Central leadership hummed and hawed over choosing the candidates even though the UDF and the LDF had begun electioneering activities, say BJP insiders.

The candidature of State general secretary C. Krishnakumar for Palakkad has apparently met with tepid response from party workers and voters alike. This segment, where the party has consistently secured the second position in the previous two elections, witnessed a telling moment when probable candidate Shobha Surendran’s rally drew larger crowds than Mr. Krishnakumar’s roadshow. His performance in the Lok Sabha polls showed that he could poll only a little over 43,000 votes, while technocrat E. Sreedharan secured over 50,000 votes in the Assembly polls in 2021.

Likewise, the party chose Kozhikode Corporation councillor Navya Haridas for Wayanad when the Central leadership preferred BJP State president K. Surendran, who had contested the 2024 General Elections from the constituency, or State general secretary M.T. Ramesh or Ms. Surendran to contest. However, all three of them backed off citing different reasons, sources said.

In the reserved segment of Chelakkara, where the party’s prospects remain minimal, the leadership has nominated K. Balakrishnan, a former grama panchayat president.

Historically, the party has displayed paralysis during bypolls in Kerala. Classic examples include the embarrassment of former State presidents P.S. Sreedharan Pillai and C.K. Padmanabhan, who finished a poor third in the Chengannur Assembly bypoll in 2018 and the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha bypoll in 2005, respectively. While Mr. Pillai’s vote share dipped by 5.65 percentage points from the previous 2016 elections, Mr. Padmanabhan’s vote share nose-dived by a staggering 25.03 percentage points.

In the byelections to Puthuppally (2023) and Thrikkakara (2022) that were dominated by sympathy waves, the BJP’s vote share declined by 3.82 and 6.13 percentage points respectively. Congress candidates emerged victorious in both constituencies – Chandy Oommen succeeded his late father and former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, while Uma Thomas won the seat previously held by her deceased husband, P.T. Thomas.