What we know we don’t know is when and where our next disease outbreak will be: Kang Premium

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, approximately 5,30,000 people died of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, the maximum in the second wave. The pandemic showed both vulnerabilities and strengths within the nation’s healthcare framework, offering invaluable lessons on preparedness, response, and resilience. In an increasingly interconnected world, the threat of contagious diseases transcends borders with unprecedented speed and impact. India’s vast and diverse population, coupled with its unique socio-economic dynamics, makes it particularly susceptible to the rapid spread of infectious ailments.  

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, approximately 5,30,000 people died of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, the maximum in the second wave. The pandemic showed both vulnerabilities and strengths within the nation’s healthcare framework, offering invaluable lessons on preparedness, response, and resilience. In an increasingly interconnected world, the threat of contagious diseases transcends borders with unprecedented speed and impact. India’s vast and diverse population, coupled with its unique socio-economic dynamics, makes it particularly susceptible to the rapid spread of infectious ailments.  

As the global community grows with the evolving nature of pathogens, from novel viruses to antibiotic-resistant bacteria, India’s role is pivotal not just for its citizens but also for regional and global health security. According to experts, preparing for future contagions is not just a reactive endeavour but a proactive commitment. It demands an integrated approach encompassing surveillance systems, enhanced healthcare infrastructure, community engagement, and forward-thinking policies. 

In a recent talk titled Outsmarting Outbreaks: The Future of Contagion, at Bangalore International Centre (BIC), microbiologist and virologist Dr. Gagandeep Kang talked about how India in the past has had infectious diseases and continues to have them, with devastating consequences.

Dr. Kang was based at the Christian Medical College (CMC), Vellore, for three decades, and built national rotavirus and typhoid surveillance networks to estimate disease burden, test vaccines and inform policy. She is now the Director of the Global Health team at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, responsible for the enterics, diagnostics, epidemiology and genomics portfolio. She is the first Indian woman to be elected as a Fellow of the Royal Society, an Infosys Prize winner in 2016, and co-author of the bestseller, Till We Win: India’s Fight Against The COVID-19 Pandemic. 

In the lecture, she explained how the extension of the human lifespan in the 20th century came from our ability to control the scourges of the past, smallpox, tuberculosis, plague and malaria through safer water and sanitation, drugs and vaccines. Dr. Kang, a physician scientist who has worked on vaccines and public health, particularly focused on children and enteric infectious disease in India said that science has transformed society, but with climate change, new threats can and will emerge. She explained why with data and modelling to emerging technologies, as the world’s most populous country, India needs to be prepared for its people and the world. 

Dr. Kang said the list of outbreaks has increased over the years to such an extent that there is a virus named after all 26 letters of the alphabet in English.

“Endemic diseases are those constantly present in a population or region, with relatively low spread. In contrast, an epidemic refers to a sudden increase in cases spreading through a large population, while a pandemic involves a sudden increase in cases across several countries, continents, or the world. Over the past 30 years, the number and diversity of outbreaks have risen dramatically, from A to Z, that is AIDS to Zika. This increase is driven by factors such as growing trade, travel, population density, human displacement, migration, deforestation, and climate change, signalling a new era of heightened epidemic risk. Notably, most large outbreaks that spread easily are caused by viruses,” she added.