What to expect from the Emmys 2024: ‘Shōgun’, ‘The Bear’ and ‘Baby Reindeer’ predicted to win big

Emmys 2024 predictions: 'Shōgun', 'The Bear', and 'Baby Reindeer' expected to win big, with high stakes for FX.

For the second time in just one year, the Emmy Awards are set to roll out the red carpet. On September 15, the 76th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will air live from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, bringing the best of television from 2023-2024 under one roof. With a strike-induced hiccup that pushed last year’s ceremony into January, the return of the Emmys this fall seems to have higher stakes. 

The first outing of 2024 may have struggled with ratings, but it won viewers’ hearts with moments of nostalgia, cast reunions, and a general sense of television history being revisited. Now, executive producers Jesse Collins, Dionne Harmon, and Jeannae Rouzan-Clay are back to lead the charge, and there’s no shortage of whispers that this year’s show might lean further into those moments of sentimentality. After all, the 30th anniversary of Friends is only a week away — what better time for a tribute?

While television is the main event, the backdrop for the night might be as politically charged as the shows being honored. With the U.S. Presidential elections looming, the ongoing humanitarian crises in Gaza and Ukraine, and a wave of protest movements, it’s anyone’s guess if the most brave statements of resistance will come in acceptance speeches — or perhaps in sartorial choices. After all, who needs a soapbox when you’ve got a well-placed pin? Celebs have already turned the red carpet into a runway of rebellion, many accessorising with bold political statements, including those eye-catching red pins in support of “Artists for Ceasefire.”

Security might be just as much of a topic of conversation as the winners and losers. The Television Academy and ABC will be working overtime to ensure the show doesn’t follow in the foot-tangled steps of this year’s Oscars, when a pro-Palestinian protest caused a traffic jam so bad it briefly turned Hollywood Boulevard into a standstill and caused a delay in the telecast.

Even though “peak television” seems to have plateaued (or perhaps is in decline) in terms of quality, the sheer variety of contenders vying for Emmy glory makes it cumbersome to predict winners. This year, Netflix leads the nominations with a staggering 107 nods across 35 programs, making it the undisputed frontrunner in terms of volume. Yet, it is FX — with its 93 nominations spread across just nine shows — that is generating the most buzz for Shōgun. If the Japanese period dramacontinues its Creative Arts Emmy-winning streak, where it bagged 14 trophies, it might go down in history as the biggest Emmy winner of all time. FX is betting on its historical adaptation to bring home the gold, and given its critical and audience reception, it’s hard to argue otherwise.

HBO, a perennial favorite, has been somewhat relegated to third place this year with 91 nominations, a far cry from its usual domination. While True Detective: Night Country is its most nominated series with 19 nods, it’s clear that the titan of prestige TV is facing stiff competition from all corners. Perhaps the biggest question is whether Apple TV — with 72 nominations for shows like Palm Royale and The Morning Show— will finally take home some hardware after a record-breaking year for the platform.

The acting categories are a mixed bag of legends and newcomers alike. The comedy race sees Paul Rudd facing off against the reigning champion Ebon Moss-Bachrach in the supporting category, while Carol Burnett will go head-to-head with Meryl Streep and Sheryl Lee Ralph. And let’s not forget Robert Downey Jr., who’s up for his first Emmy nomination for The Sympathizer, that many believe could very well be a dark horse contender.