What the US-Iran war will do to the global oil market
India Today
According to the International Energy Agency's estimates, global demand for crude is set to rise by 10 per cent in 2026.
The cost of shipping oil has nearly doubled since Friday. Brent Crude prices have climbed nearly 11 per cent since February 28. Insurance premiums for ships have also spiked as conflict in the Middle East escalates.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes, is the biggest reason for the spike. What is also worrying the market is that yet another major oil-producing country is in turmoil. With proven reserves of nearly 208 billion barrels, Iran ranks third among the world’s largest holders of oil reserves. Venezuela tops the list with about 303 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia with around 267 billion barrels. Russia, with reserves of about 80 billion barrels, ranks eighth.
The data shows that while Venezuela accounts for about 17 per cent of global oil reserves, Iran’s share stands at nearly 13 per cent, and Russia’s at around 5–6 per cent. Together, they account for more than a third of global oil reserves. While Russia faces sanctions over its ongoing war with Ukraine, Venezuelan crude accounts for less than one per cent of total global demand. Ramping up production capacity in Venezuela may take years.
According to the International Energy Agency’s estimates, global demand for crude is set to rise by 10 per cent in 2026. The supply, on the other hand, fell in January from 106.6 million barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels a day “as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, while outages and export constraints curtailed Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows.”
As late as January 2026, Iran supplied about 3.45 million barrels a day, which was nearly threeper cent of total global supply. Supply from Iraq stood at 4.34million barrels a day, while the United Arab Emirates produced about 3.6million barrels a day.
Some of this supply will be impacted by the US-Israel-Iran War. According to reports, some energy infrastructure has been hit by Iran’s retaliatory strikes. While there are no confirmed reports of production cuts yet, that could change if the conflict is prolonged.
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