U.S. officials skeptical of regime change in Tehran after Khamenei killing, say sources

U.S. officials doubt regime change in Iran post-Khamenei's death, citing skepticism about opposition capabilities amid ongoing military actions.

Following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah ​Ali Khamenei on Saturday (March 2, 2026), many senior U.S. officials remain sceptical that the U.S. and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime ‌change in the near term.

Before and after the start of the attack, U.S. officials, including U.S. President Donald ​Trump, had suggested that toppling the nation's repressive governing system was one of several U.S. goals, in addition to ⁠crippling Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

"I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, and take back your country," Mr. Trump said on Sunday (March 2, 2026) in a video posted on Truth Social.

But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious scepticism that Iran's battered opposition can ‌topple the theocratic, authoritarian governing system that has been in place since 1979.

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No officials consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran's government, which currently is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing U.S. ‌and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.