Trump 2.0 and the new matrix of U.S.-India defence ties Premium

The Prime Minister official working visit to the United States has managed to give a push to the U.S.-India bilateral defence engagement

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brief and official working visit on February 13, 2025 to the United States has, rightfully, got a lot of attention. Among other things, it managed to give a push to the U.S.-India bilateral defence engagement. Defence acquisitions will certainly expand interoperability, as the joint statement underscored. Among the agreements announced is about India likely to be proceeding with the purchase and co-production of the ‘Javelin’ Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) and ‘Stryker’ Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs). Co-production of the ‘Javelin’ and the ‘Stryker’ will boost domestic manufacturing and help integrate India more into the supply chain for these systems.

In addition, India is to buy six more P-8I maritime patrol aircraft to augment the Indian Navy’s Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). New Delhi and Washington will sign a new 10-year Framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership in the 21st Century. Collaboration in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and autonomous systems, which includes contracts already underway between Anduril Industries and the Mahindra Group and the co-development by L3Harris and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) of Active Towed Array Systems (ATAS) received a further boost under a fresh initiative announced by Mr. Modi and the U.S. President Donald Trump, dubbed the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA). Greater cooperation following a review is possible in undersea systems and fifth generation fighter aircraft as well as accelerated cooperation in space, air defence, and anti-tank missiles.

India and the U.S. have also agreed to review their existing regulatory regime in arms transfers for more synergy in defence trade, maintenance, repair and overhaul and critical initiations of negotiations for a Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreement. Under this, both countries will align their acquisition mechanisms and foster a mutual supply of defence services and goods. All these announcements augur well for deeper defence cooperation between the two countries.

However, challenges persist. One of the critical elements missing in the joint statement was virtually no mention of the urgent delivery of General Electric (GE) Aerospace’s F-404 GE-IN-20 engines for the India-made Tejas-Mark 1A fighter aircraft or the delivery and eventual 80% Transfer of Technology (ToT) to India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the more advanced GE engine F-414 to power the Mark-II variant of the Tejas. Second, Mr. Trump, in the joint press conference with Mr. Modi, did reiterate (as the joint statement suggests) the possibility of New Delhi purchasing the F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft.

Integrating the F-35 would be the most difficult to pull off as the Indian Air Force (IAF) has too many persistent gaps, which it is struggling to fill. The IAF’s capabilities, especially in the domain of offensive combat air power, require an infusion of ongoing, yet delayed, integration of several fighter aircraft geared for offensive and defensive air, counter air and ground attack missions. These capability deficits include inducting the light-weight Tejas-Mark 1A and the Mark-II jets which are expected to serve as replacements for the MiG-21 squadrons, most of which have been retired. The absence of any word in the joint statement on GE’s engine supply for the Tejas is cause for concern due to the dwindling number of IAF fighter squadrons, which could fall to under 30.

There is also an effort to revive the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) project for 114 multirole fighter aircraft. The project, which was first initiated in the year 2000, underwent several changes till 2004. A new process began in 2007 that led to Dassault’s Rafale being selected in 2011-12 for the supply of 114 fighter jets following an extensive and rigorous evaluation process. The French diluted their commitment to ToT, after expressing scepticism about HAL’s capacity to meet the rigorous technical standards necessary to build the aircraft. Negotiations tapered off because New Delhi was not ready to pay for the cost of the jets or accept France’s terms, eventually settling for 36 Rafale fighters in fly-away condition for $8.8 billion as part of a government-to-government contract.

In this context, the Trump administration’s latest offer of the F-35 is not new as (the late) Ashton Carter, who was Defence Secretary under the Obama administration, had made a similar bid to sell the fifth generation fighter aircraft. But it would come without an offer of co-production or ToT even if the unit cost of the F-35 jet is currently pegged at $80 million a plane. In contrast, India purchased the Rafale for $244 million a piece, but with a substantial weapons package consisting of the 300 kilometre range Scalp air to ground cruise missile and the 150 kilometre-range Meteor missiles.