Thailand Prime Minister’s dismissal could stall BIMSTEC summit, PM Modi’s plans to visit Thailand and Singapore

Thailand's Supreme Court dismissal of PM impacts BIMSTEC Summit, raising questions over high-level participation and regional cooperation.

The decision of Thailand’s Supreme Court to dismiss Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from his post on Wednesday (August 14) cast a shadow over the BIMSTEC Summit to be held in Bangkok next month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to travel to Bangkok for the Summit of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) of seven regional countries on September 4, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. 

Also Read:Explained | What is the BIMSTEC grouping and how is it significant?

Escalating violence in Myanmar, the dramatic ouster of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, and upcoming presidential elections in Sri Lanka on September 21 had already raised questions over high-level participation in the summit. With Muhammad Yunus sworn in as the chief of the interim government in Dhaka, many have also speculated that Mr. Modi would forge ties with the new Bangladeshi regime that would attend the BIMSTEC summit. With the host country’s Prime Minister dismissed, all eyes will be on how soon the ruling coalition in the Thai Parliament will replace the “caretaker cabinet” with a newly selected Prime Minister and government, and whether the BIMSTEC summit would need to be put off.  

Officials said it was too early to know about BIMSTEC as the development in the Thai court was “totally unexpected”, although a number of outcomes in connectivity, trade and digital cooperation have already been finalised. 

The uncertainty could also affect Mr. Modi’s plans to visit Singapore on his return journey, where officials confirmed to The Hindu, he is due to stop over for a bilateral meeting with new Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on September 5. Ahead of the visit, the India-Singapore Ministerial Roundtable (ISMR) “3+3” talks involving Foreign, Finance and Trade Ministers of both countries, are scheduled in Delhi on August 25. According to sources, the ISMR meeting has been delayed since the talks were last held in 2022, due to difficulties in matching the schedules of all six Ministers. While India has “2+2” format talks with the U.S., Russia, Japan, Australia and U.K., Singapore is the only country with which it holds “3+3” discussions. Among focus areas for the grouping will be “food cooperation; digitalisation; energy and green economy projects; skills development; and pharmaceuticals and healthcare” with a number of agreements being finalised for the Prime Ministers’ meeting in Singapore.

The BIMSTEC and Singapore meetings are part of a number of initiatives involving India’s “Act East” policy in the next few weeks. In his third tenure in office, Mr. Modi has already hosted Ms. Hasina in June and Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in July, and will host Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim on August 19. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will also host their Japanese counterparts for the “2+2” meeting in Delhi on August 20. Apart from Mr. Modi’s proposed travel to Thailand and Singapore, he is expected to travel to Laos for the ASEAN-India and East Asia Summit meetings from October 8-11, and officials did not rule out another stop over visit in the region. 

The agenda for the BIMSTEC Summit was discussed when Foreign Ministers of the regional grouping, seen as an alternative to the SAARC initiative that has been suspended over India-Pakistan tensions, met in Delhi on July 11-12 for a Retreat hosted by Mr. Jaishankar. Among issues on the agenda are strengthening connectivity, building supply chains, cooperating on blue economy, and enhancing people-to-people ties between the countries in South and South East Asia. On August 7, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also addressed a BIMSTEC economic meeting, pushing for the removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers, trade facilitation, and negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) amongst BIMSTEC countries, all of which are expected to be discussed during the summit.