T.N. Assembly election: Stung by erosion in vote share, AIADMK fighting battle of perception

AIADMK faces perception challenges and electoral setbacks in Tamil Nadu, struggling to maintain its traditional stronghold and voter base.

The AIADMK, which ruled Tamil Nadu for the highest number of years since 1977, is battling an adverse perception – amid its phase of frequent electoral setbacks – that it is fast becoming a sub-regional party. 

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A look at the party’s strength, as measured in the 2021 Assembly election, reveals that the Dravidian major has become very weak in the districts of Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, and Chennai (KTCC), where it could win only one – Madurantakam – out of 37 Assembly seats. The 2024 Lok Sabha election did not provide any relief to the leadership. If the votes polled by the coalitions headed by the AIADMK and its present ally, the BJP, is added in the KTCC belt, they would have done well only in two Assembly segments: T. Nagar and Madurantakam. 

However, an old-timer in the party points out that even in the 1977 and 1980 Assembly polls, when the AIADMK’s founder M.G. Ramachandran held sway, the organisation won only one and two seats, respectively, in Chennai. He recalls that MGR had, at one stage, wanted many of his senior colleagues to be fielded in constituencies of Chennai. 

In the remaining 41 seats of the northern region that comprises the districts of Cuddalore, Kallakurichi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet, and Tirupattur, the party bagged nine seats five years ago and was ahead of the DMK-led front in Tirukoyilur and Ulundurpettai segments in 2024. Had the fronts of the AIADMK and BJP been together, such a coalition would have secured the lead in 17 other Assembly segments in 2024.

The Cauvery delta or the central region, with 41 seats, too, has not been as good to the party. Even when the AIADMK romped home in 2011 with 150 seats, the share of the region was modest, with 26 seats. In 2024, only in the Assembly segments of Ariyalur and Jayamkondam, the party was ahead of the rest. Had it aligned with the BJP, four more segments would have been accrued.