News analysis | Will the non-voter decide U.P. election?

A sharply polarised campaign has seen some voters disenchanted

Amid the high-profile election campaign over the past month or more, the bigger story emerging after four phases of voting in Uttar Pradesh is that of the absent voter. Will the “silent no-show” by voters — that is, by not turning up to vote — actually change the outcome?

In the first two phases (Feb. 10 and 14), covering mostly western Uttar Pradesh, voter turnout declined from 64.6% and 65.5% respectively in 2017 to 62.5% and 64.7% this time. In the third and fourth phases, which covered the Etawah-Mainpuri potato-growing belt, the central districts, including the State capital of Lucknow and a major part of the Bundelkhand region, the turnout remained largely unchanged from last time — 62.3% and 62.6% respectively.

On the whole, voter turnout has been slightly short of the level reached in 2017 when the BJP scored a landslide victory by winning a record 312 of the 403 Assembly seats. Could the drop of one-to-two percentage points actually impact the Uttar Pradesh outcome?

There could be several reasons for a voter to not vote. For example, not finding oneself on the voter list, being easily dissuaded by the distance of the polling booth, and even sometimes preferring to take an extended vacation rather than staying on to vote.

But when a contest turns intensely bipolar as is currently the case in Uttar Pradesh, choosing not to vote can equally be a strong political statement. Such a reasoning could hold true for some of the committed supporters of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), who seem to be visibly sour and absent from the contest. The Congress voters, on the other hand, under the charged leadership of party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, appear highly motivated. One witnesses similarly high levels of enthusiasm amongst those intending to vote for the Samajwadi Party (SP).

The mood of BJP voters, however, is increasingly difficult to read amid questions on their possible decisions. A closer look at constituency-wise disaggregated data further reflects this uncertainty. In several constituencies, in fact, it seems likely that the absent voter might mostly be hurting the BJP’s prospects, notably in those constituencies where the party had scrapped through in 2017 with narrow margins.