How climate change is altering Indian monsoon
The Hindu
Research shows that global warming increases the fluctuations in the monsoon, resulting in both long dry periods and short spells of heavy rains
Monsoon in India has undergone several changes over the years, especially on account of climate change. A shift in the track of monsoon systems, like low pressure and depression travelling south of their position and flash floods are a result of this change. And these changes spell intense and frequent extreme unprecedented weather events over the places which once struggled to record even normal monsoon rains. With this looming threat having a bearing on food security, it is only a matter of time before it has socio-economic impact.
“It has been very complex to understand the rainfall variability and how monsoon patterns have been behaving of late, especially this year. The problem is that it is very challenging for us to understand the situation, which calls for a lot more research. Persistence of intense La Nina conditions, the abnormal warming of East Indian Ocean, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), southward movement of most of the monsoon depressions and lows and pre-monsoon heating over the Himalayan region are melting glaciers. This is a very complex mix,” said Dr. R. Krishnan, Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has clearly sighted that 2022 has seen the second highest extreme events since 1902. An alarming case as incidents of floods and droughts have increased, there is more evidence coming our way on how global warming has been impacting the Indian monsoon.
“There is no doubt about the fact that most of the monsoon weather systems have been travelling across central parts of the country, changing the area of rainfall. Climate change is definitely behind these changes and thus, it calls for more research on the changes in the behavioural pattern of these systems,” said G.P. Sharma, President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
As a result, States such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Maharashtra have been recording excess rainfall this season. Usually, monsoon systems move across Northwest India giving rains over the region there. Experts believe that these changes are here to stay, which would continue to propel extreme weather events over the entire South Asian region.
During the last six months, entire South Asia has been reporting a series of extreme weather events. While Bangladesh, Pakistan and India have battled severe floods, China is reeling under massive drought conditions.
“Slow onsets can still be taken care of through adaptation and resilience ideas but these kinds of big events are very difficult to cope with. That is where the main issue lies as the country would then have to divert development money to climate finance to combat climate change.” said Dr. Anjal Prakash, Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and IPCC lead author.