Erode (East) bypoll: With AIADMK choosing to stay away, DMK’s chances appear bright

With the AIADMK, known for its traditional strong base in the western districts of Tamil Nadu, having decided to boycott the Erode (East) Assembly byelection slated for February 5, the cards appear to be stacked in the DMK’s favour. This is the first time that the principal Opposition party is staying away from the electoral fray in the constituency.

With the AIADMK, known for its traditional strong base in the western districts of Tamil Nadu, having decided to boycott the Erode (East) Assembly byelection slated for February 5, the cards appear to be stacked in the DMK’s favour. This is the first time that the principal Opposition party is staying away from the electoral fray in the constituency.

Since the formation of Erode (East) in 2008 following delimitation, the constituency saw seven polls, including three Lok Sabha elections (Assembly segment of Erode parliamentary seat in 2014, 2019, and 2024) and one byelection in February 2023. On all these occasions, the AIADMK had either fielded candidates or supported the nominees of its electoral partners. Thrice, the party was on the winning side, while it was outsmarted by its principal adversary, the DMK, four times. 

All the electoral reverses suffered by the AIADMK took place after Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016. In the last five and odd years, the vote share of the party varied from the lowest of 22.73% in 2024 to the highest of 38.41% in 2021.   When Jayalalithaa was alive, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), an ally of the AIADMK, bagged the seat in the 2011 Assembly poll with a vote share of nearly 51%. In the 2014 Lok Sabha poll and 2016 Assembly election, the Dravidian major’s score fluctuated between 42% and 44%

As for the ruling DMK’s track record, the party had put up its candidates in 2011 and 2016 Assembly elections, and it was the loser both times. Ironically, V.C. Chandirakumar, the DMK’s nominee now, won as the DMDK’s candidate in 2011, defeating the current Housing Minister S. Muthusamy, who is the point person for the ongoing byelection. In fact, after his defeat, Mr. Muthusamy shifted to the neighbouring Erode (West) in 2016. 

Though the Marumarlarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) was allotted the Erode Lok Sabha seat in 2019, its functionary, A. Ganeshamurthi, was fielded as the DMK’s nominee, and he emerged victorious. In 2021 and 2023, it was the ruling party’s ally, the Congress, which put up its nominees in the Erode (East) Assembly constituency. 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Erode seat was bagged by the DMK. In the last 14 and odd years, the Dravidian party got the highest vote share of around 56.6% in 2024 and the lowest of 24.7% in 2014. 

With many major parties not going to participate in the bypoll, the chances of victory of Mr. Chandirakumar, who is contesting for the third time in Erode (East), with much higher vote share, appear bright.